Big Marley’s UFC 237 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
MME = Mass Multi Entering



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Brazil. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $30k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Raoni Barcelos – $9,600

Barcelos is the cash game play on for me this week. On the betting line he is now -1100 and he is -206 to win ITD. He is also +110 to win in round 1. He is my favorite play on the board, the only issue is being able to afford him. For cash games, I can for sure fit him in. For GPPs it will be harder to get 6 wins paying up for his huge salary, but I like him there as well. I just won’t make it a priority to get him into those tournament lineups, but cash I want that -1100 on my team for a safe win.

GPP play of the week – Ryan Spann – $8,800

This is a fight I like to target. My preferred play is Spann but Little Nog is in play as well. The line for FDGTD is -280 and I think Spann can win via KO or sub, and it could be 1st round as well. I think he can compete with the $9k fighters and he could be a guy that kicks them off the 1st place lineup. Little Nog is the better boxer though and Spann doesn’t have a great chin himself, so I could see Nog winning via KO. I don’t think that is likely, so I won’t be heavy on him, but he will make my player pool. Spann is a guy I think is in play in all formats and I will try to be overweight on him. It is more of a fade on Little Nog at this point, but I don’t see this fight going all 3-rounds and I like Spann to get the win.

Underdog play of the week – Alex Volkanovski – $7,800

On DraftKings, I expect Volkanovski to be very chalky and rightfully so. He is my preferred play in this fight and his past scores pretty much make him a guy you can’t fade if you are MMEing. I don’t see him having the ceiling he did in his past fights vs Aldo, but those numbers are hard to ignore. His 6 UFC wins have each totaled over 100 DK points. From most recent fight to his debut, these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That is pretty amazing. I think he has a good chance of upsetting the legend here and maybe getting a finish for another high score. I don’t think Aldo is a great matchup for him to show that 100+ point ceiling but at $7.8k we don’t need that many points. I think IF he wins, he easily pays off that salary.

Fade of the week – Luana Carolina – $8,900

There is no way I am paying $8.9k for Carolina. She is the fade of the week and if it burns me then it burns me. I don’t see that being the case though even if she wins. I expect this fight to stay standing and I don’t see her striking at a pace to pay off her price tag without getting a finish. I don’t think she gets that finish so even if she wins I think she scores closer to 75 DK points and at her salary that won’t end up on the optimal lineup. Even if I make 150 lineups this week I won’t get any exposure to Carolina.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 76-45 for +260.95 (+$26,095) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

LFA 66 Opening Betting Odds

UFC 237 Weigh-In Video and Results