Bet: Max Holloway (-215)
While there are some concerns about Holloway in this spot—such as his chin, age, and overall regression—if you believe he has regressed at 35 and have trouble backing him, then you also have to acknowledge that Conor McGregor carries those same question marks – but at a more severe level – plus many more.
For some reason, people treat McGregor as if he isn’t like any other human being and isn’t subject to the same principles. I get it—the public loves Conor and loves backing him. He has done some extraordinary things in MMA. The fact is, though, that Conor is 37 and will turn 38 just days after the fight. While he doesn’t have the same “miles” and rounds on his body as Holloway, he has been out of fighting for five long years. Not to mention the broken leg he suffered in the Poirier trilogy and the cracked chin he took in that series. How will his chin hold up after all this time? Conor has always relied heavily on intangibles like his chin because, let’s be honest, his defense is only average. Will his speed look significantly slower now? What about the effects of cycling on and off PEDs? There are a lot of question marks and unknowns surrounding McGregor here.
If McGregor’s line were still in the +400s like it was at the open, I would have no choice but to take it. But this is a numbers game, and Holloway at -225 (or under -200 on prediction markets) is honestly a great play.
I also think the two recent losses on Holloway’s record are being held against him for faulty reasons. Topuria is still, despite his loss to Gaethje, one of the best fighters in the world and one of the best in his weight class. It was a competitive fight, and Holloway simply got caught in the later rounds. The recent loss to Oliveira was a stylistic nightmare for him—Oliveira was significantly stronger, bigger, and a much more technically sound grappler. Oliveira was able to get the clinch and take Holloway down at will. I highly doubt McGregor can replicate either the Topuria or Oliveira game plan here. Conor simply doesn’t have the cardio to match Holloway’s volume, and his grappling is nowhere near Oliveira’s level (and may even be worse than Holloway’s).
If you’re still looking for value on McGregor, you’re better off taking a TKO prop in the early rounds. The longer the fight goes, the worse it should get for him. We really have no idea how he’ll look after five years without real fighting rounds. We saw what a year-long layoff did to Topuria (even though other factors were involved, the ring rust was noticeable).
I have Max Holloway winning in dominant fashion. The first round may be somewhat competitive while McGregor is at his freshest, but I don’t expect it to stay that way for long. Once Holloway finds his range and increases his volume, McGregor will begin to slow.
Thanks for reading, and best of luck!
