LAS VEGAS, Nevada – The UFC makes its debut on Paramount+ with a great PPV lineup headlined by English star Paddy Pimblett and Justin Gaethje who is looking to become champion before he rides off into the sunset.
Pimblett vs Gaethje
I can understand why Paddy Pimblett is the favorite, but at the same time, I still scratch my head over why he’s such a heavy favorite. He’s brash, charismatic, and exciting in the cage—exactly the kind of fighter the UFC loves and wants to push to the moon. But I think what the public has lost sight of along the way is just how good Pimblett actually is. Do I think he’s a good fighter? Yes. Do I think he’s overrated? Also yes. But being overrated doesn’t mean he’s bad; it just means he’s not quite as good as the hype would have us believe.
That’s probably why the betting lines sit where they do, at least to an extent: the massive hype surrounding Pimblett, combined with talks of retirement from Justin Gaethje and the age gap between them. Pimblett is in his prime at a young 31 years old, while Gaethje just turned 37 last November and has been through some of the most exciting—and brutal—back-and-forth wars in the octagon and in prior promotions. We’ve seen Gaethje’s chin tested repeatedly, some with worse results than others. To his credit, he’s only lost to the absolute best, with his most recent defeat coming via a brutal one-punch knockout from Max Holloway in the summer of 2024. Gaethje rebounded nicely after some time off, picking up a solid win over Rafael Fiziev last March.
I can see either fighter winning here. Pimblett could bum-rush Gaethje early, using his speed and power to land a shot Gaethje doesn’t see coming and finish the fight quickly. Or Pimblett could hurt Gaethje at any point in this fight if he chooses to fight more cautionary. On the flip side, I could see Gaethje being very strategic (similar to how he fought Tony Ferguson and others), chopping down Pimblett’s legs to limit his movement, speed, and power. Gaethje has very strong, effective leg kicks, and I think he’ll implement them heavily—he knows this is most likely his last real shot at a championship. If he can hurt Pimblett’s legs enough, it will open up everything else and could lead to a finish.
Gaethje is still one of the best fighters in the lightweight division and across the promotion. Though there is reason Gaethje is on the borderline of a 2-1 underdog (age, regression, chin). You are getting +195 on the better technical fighter, who—if he can survive the early blitz and avoid dangerous exchanges or getting too wild—has a solid opportunity to win this fight. Just understand that you are betting on a fighter who is older and regressed from his prime but still very technically good and far better than his opponent.
Bet: Justin Gaethje (+195)
Thanks for reading and best of luck!
