LAS VEGAS, Nevada – UFC 323 returns to the T-Mobile Arena for the final pay-per-view as the UFC moves to Paramount+ in the new year. Headlined by two fantastic championship fights with a rematch of Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan in the main event and Alexandre Pantoja and a new rising contender, Joshua Van in the co-main event.
Pantoja vs Van
Having not tasted defeat in nearly six years, Alexandre Pantoja is truly approaching that all-time great status. He is having an incredible run as flyweight champion, and, unfortunately, his weight class and reign do not get enough love and praise from the public and casual fans, because his talent and skill set are remarkable.
24-year-old Joshua Van has quickly risen up the ranks to challenge for the title, and it comes off a fight of the night (and arguably fight of the year) performance against Brandon Royval. I had a bet on Royval in that fight – I thought Royval would be too much too soon for Va,n and I was proven wrong. Van looked great, and his striking won him that fight as Royval’s face was a mess by the end of it.
While Van’s standup is something to take note of, and Pantoja should be cautious for as long as the fight is on the feet, Van has never fought someone as elite a grappler as Pantoja is. This fight is just one of those situations where Van may be champion one day, but it is not going to come against the current champion. I believe Pantoja is too good and has fought guys with a better pedigree of grappling than what Van currently possesses. It is also about price for me too – I think the line on Pantoja is really great. Sitting around the -230 area at the moment. I would need a better price on Van if I were to bet on him, as I think his only realistic path to victory here is a puncher’s chance. And with this being against an elite grappler who can get it to the ground and keep it on the ground with a lethal jiu jitsu game to boot, it is hard for me to see this staying on the feet long enough to give Van a chance to win.
If you are looking to take Pantoja here, you could wait closer to the weigh-ins or by fight night for a potentially better price, given the name value of Van and the public looking to rally behind him as the fan favorite.
Taira vs Moreno
I am riding with Tatsuro Taira here, who I believe is one of the best fighters in that division outside of the champion. He is a very promising young talent at just 25 years old and should be getting a title shot in ‘26 as long as he performs in a pivotal matchup against Brandon Moreno on Saturday. Given the trajectory of both fighters, I think Taira is the right guy to back here, as I believe it is his fight to lose. He is the more polished striker and grappler despite the experience disadvantage and being younger. It just speaks to his talent as a 25-year-old. His athleticism
and ability to close distance with strikes and get it to the ground are the reasons I favor him. My concern is whether Moreno can match Taira’s pace and maybe even put the pace on Taira that he has not faced yet. The odds are close, but I believe Tatsuro Taira is the rightful favorite and should be able to take Moreno down, control him on the ground to a decision win.
Thanks for reading, and best of luck!
