Las Vegas, Nevada – On Saturday, September 13th, a once-in-a-lifetime fight takes place at Allegiant Stadium, where undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez defends his crown against Terence Crawford in a clash dubbed a super fight.
For Terence Crawford, this is a chance to become the first boxer ever to have been undisputed in three separate weight classes. To fathom that even being a possibility is just unreal, and Crawford has the tools to make it a reality. Having already gone undisputed at 140 and 147, Crawford tested the waters last year in August at 154. He performed well in a gritty decision win over Madrimov for the interim WBA and WBO titles. It is a shame it is happening so late into his boxing career, but Bud Crawford is finally getting the fame and attraction for how great of a fighter he is. He truly does just about everything well.
As for the reigning undisputed super middleweight champion, Canelo Alvarez, there is not a whole lot that needs to be said. From a 23-year-old kid who got taken to school by Floyd Mayweather to a grown man who has steamrolled his way through opponents and divisions to claim glory and build his name into global fame. He has now found his stopping point at 168 since claiming undisputed some years ago. In my opinion, Canelo does not have a lot left to achieve, and this superfight with Crawford may be one of the last major bouts, adding another name to his resume along with a substantial payday.
Prediction: I have analyzed this fight in many different ways since its announcement. Crawford debuted at 154 in August of 2024 and has not competed since. The size difference against Madrimov was noticeable, and Madrimov was able to come forward and was not worried about the counters. Madrimov’s issue was that he just did not throw enough volume to keep pressure on Crawford. Bud relied on his jab and combinations to stick and move. At 38, Crawford is jumping not one but two weight classes to face Canelo at 168. His age does not really concern me much, since he has had no major injuries and looked fine last year. Though a lot can happen in a year without fight time, so it is left to be seen.
We have seen Canelo take risks as well, like moving up to 175 and challenging Bivol for his title in a valiant but losing effort. It showed why weight classes matter and that the power difference was evident. A year after the Bivol loss, Jermell Charlo made the same weight class jump Crawford is doing – from 154 to 168. Canelo dominated the then-undisputed champion at 154 with ease, as Charlo honestly looked like he was only there for a paycheck. While Terence Crawford is significantly more skilled than Charlo, the weight jump remains a concern.
For Crawford to win, his game plan must center on sticking and moving, leaning heavily on the jab and speed. He cannot allow the bigger, stronger Canelo to trap him against the ropes and unload. While I think Crawford has a fine chin, we ultimately have not seen it tested against someone with the power that Canelo carries. Bud will need to continue to circle and stay on his bicycle, circling away from Canelo’s power.
For Canelo to successfully defend his undisputed status, he should start aggressively, pressuring Crawford and pushing him against the ropes. Even if he cannot keep Crawford on the ropes, Canelo should continue to rip the body and make Crawford feel that power difference. If it happens to turn into a back-and-forth exchange, I am confident in Canelo’s durability. He has been in gritty fights over the years and has taken big shots from heavy hitters such as Gennady Golovkin. I always like pointing to that second fight with GGG as Canelo really had to dig deep and went toe-to-toe with an offensive powerhouse.
A lot of people are picking Crawford this weekend due to his exceptional skills and being boxing’s best switch-hitter. His 2023 dominant finish over Errol Spence has fueled his hype – and it’s justified given how he performed. However, I believe the public is too quick to write off Canelo, as his peak A++ form may not be there anymore. Canelo remains very elite, with a proven ability to nullify opponents’ offense and break them down over the course of a fight. When a fight of this magnitude demands a boxer to rise to the occasion, Canelo has never failed to deliver, and I expect him to get his hand raised this weekend.
Bet: Canelo Alvarez moneyline (-160)
Thanks for reading ,and best of luck!
