MMAOB staff writer Adam Martin takes a deeper look at the main event of UFC Vegas 49, a five-round catchweight (160lbs) bout between Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green. The event takes place on Saturday, February 26 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Islam Makhachev (-700)
Makhachev (21-1) is the No. 4 ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 30-year-old Russian has a 10-1 overall record in the UFC and he is currently riding a nine-fight win streak. Makhachev has picked up some excellent UFC victories along the way, including Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises, Drew Dober, and Arman Tsarukyan, with his lone UFC loss coming against Adriano Martins. Overall Makhachev has shown elite-level grappling ability during his UFC run. Other than Martins, he has been able to get all of his other opponents to the mat, and on the ground, it’s his world. Makhachev has some of the best grappling skills in the division and he is almost impossible to beat once he gets on top of you on the ground. Some believe that Makhachev could be the next Khabib Nurmagomedov, and if he is able to get by Green, it’s possible that Makhachev could be next in line for a 155lbs title shot.
Bobby Green (+500)
Green (29-12-1) is currently unranked in the UFC lightweight division. The 35-year-old American has been in the UFC since 2013 and since then he has racked up a 10-7-1 record in the UFC with wins over the likes of Nasrat Haqparsat, Al Iaquinta, Clay Guida, Josh Thomson, and James Krause. Green has shown throughout the years that he is simply a tough out at 155lbs. He has excellent striking skills, with superb boxing to go along with great head movement, and he has some of the best conditioning in the division, being able to fight hard in the third round. It will be interesting to see against Makahchev if Green is able to stuff the takedowns because that is what this fight comes down to. If Makhachev can get Green down, it will be a hard fight to win. But if Green’s takedown defense holds up and he keeps this fight on the feet, he could very well be a live dog.
Fight Breakdown: I have a ton of respect for Green for taking this fight on short notice, but it just feels like Makhachev is going to be a hard matchup for him. Makhachev’s wrestling has been elite and although Green has decent takedown defense, 72% TDD is probably not good enough to stifle Makhachev’s repeated TD attempts. If Green is able to keep this fight standing, then he will for sure be a live dog because he has great boxing and an iron chin. But overall, it just seems hard to believe that Green will be able to stop the takedowns on a consistent basis. Otherwise, it feels like Makhachev is just going to take him down, blanket him, and potentially get a finish. Either Makhachev grinds out a five-round decision or he gets a late finish by submission or ground and pound, but Makhachev should win this fight, and it might be enough to get him a title shot next.
Prediction: Islam Makhachev
