UFC 269 Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier Prop Betting Selection

Prop: Charles Oliveira Wins By Inside The Distance (+200)

Once again the oddsmakers seem to not be giving Charles Oliveira enough credit. I think we all know his best way to win would be to score a submission in some fashion – whether it be a standing guillotine or sinking in a choke on the ground. Oliveira is an absolute wizard when it comes to submissions and no one seems to be capable of surviving them most of the time. Oliveira should avoid getting into any back and forth exchanges with the heavy hitting Poirier if he wants to have the most success at retaining his championship. However, Oliveira’s striking has improved incredibly over the past several years. He has become a complete fighter and is dangerous in any moment of the fight. He packs power behind his punches and kicks and always has submissions or wrestling to fall back on at any moment in the fight.

I would not be surprised if we saw Oliveira walk Poirier down since he is the bigger man until he could grab a clinch or body lock and take him down. I think a lot of people are forgetting the achilles heel that Poirier has always had: wrestling. We just have not seen him show it in quite awhile. He is not a good wrestler by any means and may find himself in a dangerous spot if he is taken down by the champion. Could we see Poirier catch Oliveira with a huge power shot and get the finish? Absolutely, but I have confidence in the champion’s improved defense. Expect to see a cautious but engaging Oliveira looking to grab a hold of Poirier for the takedown enroute to a finish on the ground. I am picking the inside the distance prop as a safety net in case a knockout finish happens for Oliveira.

Written by Chris White

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