Fights to Avoid Betting for UFC Fight Night 95 in Brasilia

ufc-londonUFC Fight Night 95: Cyborg vs Lansberg Date: September 24, 2016 Arena: Nilson Nelson Gymnasium City: Brasilia, Brazil The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will be back in Brasilia, Brazil this Saturday night (September 24, 2016) for UFC Fight Night 95: Cyborg vs Lansberg. The 13-fight card is set to kick off with prelims at 6:30pm ET on UFC Fight Pass and the preliminary action will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm, with the main card being on the same channel at 10pm. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Featherweight bout: Renan Barao (-450) vs Phillipe Nover (+360) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this featherweight match-up is closer than the betting odds currently indicate. I would not be at all surprised to see Nover pull away with the win here, and I could see it coming by way of T/KO or decision. I think there is a decent chance he edges out a decision in this 145-pound contest, where Barao will be looking to pick up his first victory following a move up from the bantamweight division, where he previously held the UFC championship title. Nover will have advantages in height, reach and physical size heading into this contest, and he is a game opponent, so I don’t agree with him being a near 4-to-1 underdog. I think there is value in him at the current odds and have been flirting with the thought of making a play on him but ultimately I decided to make a pass on a straight play for this fight. Being in Barao’s backyard, I think this is a fight he could win on the judges’ scorecards, even if he doesn’t deserve it. If it were in Las Vegas, I would have likely taken a stab on Nover, but with the fight being in Brazil, I’m just gonna avoid this one come Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: Barao by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Lightweight bout: Gilbert Burns (-185) vs Michel Prazeres (+160) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 155-pound contest is going to come down to whoever has the edge on the feet, and I’m not confident but I think that will be Prazeres, largely in part due to his power. I think Burns will need to take this fight to the mat and look to submit his opponent, but I don’t think that will be an easy task, as Prazeres has solid Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu of his own. Burns’ chances of earning a submission victory would increase in later rounds, as Prazeres’ conditioning can be hit or miss and at times he slows down in the third round. I expect this to be a closely contested match-up and I initially planned to making a play on Burns, but after doing my homework on the bout, I have decided that it’s a dog or pass situation at these odds, and I ultimately make a pass. This will be a fight I avoid at the sportsbooks this weekend. Gabe’s Call: Burns by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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