Live Dogs for UFC 201

karolina_kowalkiewiczUFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley Date: July 30, 2016 Arena: Philips Arena City: Atlanta, GA The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Atlanta, GA for the third time in promotional histor with UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley. The action packed 12 fight card is set to kick off on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30pm ET with preliminary action, which will continue on FOX Sprots 2 at 8pm ET. Main card action will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm ET. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs: Women’s Strawweight bout: Rose Namajunas (-210) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+175) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this is a very close fight in the UFC’s women’s 115-pound division and I do not agree with the betting odds at all. In fact, I think Kowalkiewicz should be a small betting favorite heading into the contest, which means I think she holds great value at her current offering price of +175. As a fan, I like Namajunas more and am a bigger fan of hers. However, I am playing the odds here and I believe the value is with the Polish fighter. I was lucky enough to personally catch her at +220, but I think she is still a very good bet at +175. I think she finds success in keeping this fight on the feet and outstriking Namajunas for at least two out of three rounds to pick up the nod from the judges’ at Octagon-side. Gabe’s Call: Kowalkiewicz by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Kowalkiewicz (+175) 2u to win 3.5u Flyweight bout: Wilson Reis (-320) vs Hector Sandoval (+260) Gabe’s Thoughts: Sandoval is making his promotional debut in short notice, replacing an injured Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Jackson, who was set to defend his UFC Flyweight title against Reis. The Brazilian went from title challenger to fighting for a paycheck against a highly touted yet unknown prospect. Sandoval trains out of Team Alpha Male and Reis trains out of Alliance MMA, so this fight kind of keeps that rivalry going. I give Reis the edge in this fight due to his advantages in grappling and cardio, however I do not agree with the current betting odds. At his current offering price of +260, I think Sandoval is worth a play. I think Reis is the best he’s ever been right now, but I would not be at all surprised to see Sandoval pull off the upset. Gabe’s Call: Reis by Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-29) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Sandoval (+260) 1u to win 2.6u Welterweight bout: Michael Graves (-235) vs Bojan Velickovic (+195) Gabe’s Thoughts: Contrary to popular opinion, I think Velickovic is the better fighter heading into this match-up. I am a Michael Graves fan, but this fight again comes down to the betting lines, and I just don’t believe he should be such a big favorite over Velickovic. In fact, I think Velickovic should be e -140 favorite heading into this contest, so at his current underdog tag of +195, I really like him for a wager. I think he finds success in keeping this fight on the feet and outstriking Graves for the majority of the fight to pick up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, possibly securing a T/KO stoppage along the way. Gabe’s Call: Velickovic by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Velickovic (+195) 2u to win 3.9u

Written by Gabe Killian

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