MMA Betting Recap: UFC on FUEL TV 3 Closing Numbers

UFC on FUEL TV 3Please note: These closing numbers are provided by a couple sportsbooks we supply lines to, and we will keep their identity private.  These numbers are intended to show you what is going on behind the scenes in the sports gambling industry regarding MMA betting. Since Korean Chan Sung Jung was one of the featured fighters in the main event of this UFC on FUEL TV 3 card, I requested the charts for the main card from an Asian sportsbook that MMA OddsBreaker supplies lines to. Featherweight favorite Dustin Poirier closed anywhere between -380 to -400 after opening at -375, but not in Asia. At this book, they closed Poirier at -290 with the comeback on Jung set at +210. If you shopped around a little for MMA odds, you could have picked up Jung as high as +300. Their final chart had 653 bets on Jung, including parlays, with a total amount wagered of $163,000. Poirier had only 121 total wagers and $32,000 bet on him. Because this came from an Asian book, the support for Jung is understandable and the line reflects the action that came in there. Now the same fight from another sportsbook we provide lines to in Latin America had a completely different look as far as the betting action that came in. This book is a land-based, walk-up shop only that does not take action online. They closed the line Poirier -400 and Jung +320, which was more in line with the rest of the sportsbook industry. Their closing action showed 159 bets on Poirier for $13,000 while Jung had 81 wagers for a total of $3,000. I wanted to show you these two different charts to stress the importance of having as many outs as possible. If you had laid the -290 at the Asian book ($290 to make $100) and took the +320 ($100 to make $320) at the Latin American book, you would have had yourself a no-lose situation. I understand this may be something difficult to do, but keep in mind that there are several European books, and they get an influx of cash and wagers in on one side when a popular local guy like Michael Bisping is fighting, giving you a great opportunity to get a nice price on his opponent. If you have another out with an American-based book, this where the action will come in more balanced, possibly providing you with a no-risk situation. In this case, it was only 10 cents that you had could have earned, but when the favorites are not so big, the chance to get a wider gap in the spread can happen if you are set up with the right sportsbooks. The Dongi Yang vs. Brad Tavares bout had more even action on it and there wasn’t an opportunity to lock in an earning on this bout. Closing numbers from Latin American book with final charts and money counts: Jorge Lopez     +120 22 bets $5k vs. Amir Sodallah  -145  32 bets $7k Jeremy Stephens +200 49 bets $3k vs. Donald Cerrone -250 144 bets $11k Jeff Hougland +255 55 bets $4k vs. Yves Jabouin -315 70 bets $11k Igor Pokrajac +140 34 bets $4k vs. Fabio Maldonado -170 50 bets $14k Jason MacDonald +200 29 bets $11k vs. Tom Lawlor -250 87 bets $6k Dongi Yang +120 33 bets $2k vs. Brad Tavares -160 93 bets $6k Marcus Levesseu -180 65 bets $4k vs. Cody McKenzie +150 32 bets $5k Carlo Prater +375 11 bets $83 vs. TJ Grant -500 130 bets $2k Kamal Shalarus +310 12 bets $1k vs. Rafael dos Anjos -400 123 bets $9k Johnny Eduardo -130 18 bets 6k vs. Jeff Curran +100 66 bets $3k Francisco Rivera -250 98 bets $2k vs. Alex Soto +200 14 bets $1k There are a couple interesting things worth noting when looking at these final numbers. Prater only had $83 bet on him, and he was getting one of the best prices on the card at +375. Nobody saw value there, not that Grant got an overwhelming amount of bets either, closing at one of the highest lines on the betting board at -500. I also found it interesting that the undercard fight Rivera vs. Soto received more than 100 wagers. Most boxing undercards that have sometimes decent named fighter will only receive 10 to 20 wagers at a book this size. This just goes to show the growth and betting popularity of MMA. Another interesting chart was MacDonald vs. Lawlor. More bets came in on Lawlor with less money wagered while more money was bet on MacDonald with less wagers. This shows us that the “smart money” was on MacDonald and the recreational player on Lawlor. Score one for the little guys! The co-main event with Lopez and Sodallah saw very little betting action, and in all honesty, I had to ask myself why this was even the co-main event and not Cerrone vs. Stephens. In my opinion, Sadollah-Lopez should have been on the undercard, as there were many more fights that people had more interest in. The favorites ended up going 9-3, and the only underdogs to win were Jung in a huge upset, Pokrajac and McKenzie. Yang looked like he should have earned a decision win over Tavares, and Lopez was robbed by Sodallah. If there is anything you are interested in knowing about MMA from a bookmaker’s perspective, just drop me an e-mail at, and I will do my best to get the info to you or discuss in a future article.

Written by MMA OddsBreaker

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