Big Marley’s UFC 232 DraftKings Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts

Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card that was moved from Vegas to California in a weeks’ notice. We have some solid contests to end the year off right on DraftKings and there is a lot of money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $50,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favorite contests to chase so I will probably max that hoping to hit big. Other than that, I will stick to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good amount of play in cash games.

Cash Game play of the week – Jon Jones ($9,100)

I think Jon Jones is the greatest fighter of all-time and I expect him to get another win here at UFC 232. In the first fight between Jones and Gustafsson, Jones out struck Gus by 24 significant strikes and scored 102 DK points. I expect him to score at least that much again here if he wins, if not more. There are 3 fighters priced higher than Jones this week and he only costs $9.1k, so I think that makes Jones a lock in cash games. In tournaments he will probably be the highest owned fighter on the card so if you want to fade Jones I would do it in the GPPs, but since we don’t care about ownership in cash games that is where I will be starting my lineup.

GPP play of the week – Ilir Latifi ($8,900)

I think the most likely outcome if Latifi wins is him knocking Corey Anderson out. Anderson has a weak chin and Latifi has serious power. If he connects clean on that chin, then that could be all it takes and if that is in the 1st round then Latifi scores over 100 DK points. Anderson is a great wrestler but Latifi has 100% takedown defense and he is going to be a lot shorter that Anderson, so I think that will help him stuff takedowns and keep this standing. If he wins, I expect him to score highly. He also has Jones and Cyborg priced above him and they will soak up most of the ownership in this range, so we could get Latifi at low ownership in GPPs and that is why I like him for those tournaments.

Underdog play of the week – Siyar Bahadurzada ($7,400)

Siyar Bahadurzada is $1,400 cheaper than Curtis Millender on DraftKings but he is only a +130 underdog on the betting line. We are getting some value on him over on DK and he is on a 3-fight win streak where he scored over 100 DK points in all 3 fights. I think Siyar is a live underdog in this spot and if he gets a knockout then he could score over 100-points again here and at $7.4k that will almost surely put him on the 1st place lineup. I also think if anyone is going to go for takedowns in this fight then it is probably going to be Siyar and he could work his GNP or look to lock up a submission on the mat. I think he is one of the better underdogs this week and I would be surprised if he didn’t get at least 10x his salary in a win here.

Fade of the week – Ryan Hall ($9,400)

The only way Ryan Hall pays off this salary is with a 1st round finish. He is fighting a 40-year-old washed up BJ Penn and is the biggest betting favorite on the card, but his style of fighting is not good for DraftKings. At this $9.4k price tag I would want over 100-points from Hall in this match and he has only combined for 103 total points in his first 2 UFC wins. I am not saying he won’t go out there and beat BJ, or even finish him, I just think the fighters priced below him have higher ceilings. If Hall gets another 50-53-point win in this spot then he is going to kill any tournament lineups he is in as the most expensive fighter on the card. There is no way Jones or Cyborg score that low in a win and they are both cheaper, so this is an easy fade for me this week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 48-29 for +160.27u (+$16,027) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +65.83u the last 8 cards!)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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