ONE Championship 42 Betting Odds

ONE 42ONE Championship is back this Friday with a card headlined by a pair of title bouts. The currently vacant strawweight belt will be on the line in the main event, as rapidly ascending MMA prospect Angela Lee takes on one of the most tenured female fighters from Japan, Mei Yamaguchi. The 19-year-old Lee has become massively popular in ONE Championship since making her pro debut in May last year. All five of Lee’s victories have come by way of submission, as the skills she developed while becoming a two-time world pankration champion have transitioned expertly to MMA. Yamaguchi has been competing in MMA since Lee was 10 years old, and has been ranked amongst the top 10 at 105lbs for the last half decade. She has competed against some of the greatest female MMA fighters of all time, like Megumi Fujii and Yuka Tsuji, defeating the latter to become Valkyrie 48kg (105lb) champion. Most recently, she won the DEEP JEWELS 48kg tournament in 2015. The light heavyweight belt will also be up for grabs, as BJJ legend Roger Gracie returns to MMA for the first time in a year and a half to face undefeated Polish fighter Michal Pasternak. Few — if any — men can match Gracie’s accomplishments in the submission grappling world. He is a 10-time Mundials champion and a two-time ADCC champion. While he never seemed to fully commit to MMA following his grappling career, he’s still racked up a 7-2 record, with losses only coming to Tim Kennedy and Mo Lawal. Pasternak didn’t make his MMA debut until the age of 28, but racked up an 11-0 record in just over two years of competition. After competing in Poland for his first ten fights, he made his ONE debut in December 2014, defeating 50+ fight veteran Rafael Silva by unanimous decision. Further down the card, a pair of former ONE champions will square off, as Jadamba Narantungalag faces Kotetsu Boku in a match with featherweight title implications, as both men work to win back some gold in ONE Championship. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting odds for ONE Championship: Ascent to Power today at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MAIN CARD (Pay-Per-View, 7am ET) Angela Lee -585 Mei Yamaguchi +385 Roger Gracie -475 Michal Pasternak +325 Jadambaa Narantungalag -170 Kotetsu Boku +130 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Angela Lee is impressive for a fighter so young in her career, but this will be the first time she’s facing a top-level opponent. Thus far, she’s been able to remain unscathed despite making some of the typical mistakes we see out of female fighters (Lee loves her sacrifice throws) and being a bit too overzealous about scoring submissions before she has position. She does set submissions up very well on the ground with strikes, and seems to have a ton of cardio to keep her frantic style up. I’m curious if Yamaguchi’s experience with elite grapplers will allow her to capitalize on some of Lee’s mistakes, or if the size and strength advantage the younger fighter possesses will simply be too much. Both fighters are at their best on the ground and somewhat uncomfortable on the feet, so I don’t expect too much range striking here, but the bout could end up in the clinch for prolonged periods as each fighter searches for takedowns. While Yamaguchi is probably the better technical wrestler, I think this is where the size advantage plays the biggest part in the fight. Lee will probably get takedowns and end up on top. While I don’t think she does enough to be the first to finish Yamaguchi, I think she will become the champ here. The line is crazy though. It was strange to see Roger Gracie outstrike someone in his last fight. He actually used his range pretty well, and that makes him a terrible matchup for anyone who isn’t an ace wrestler. Pasternak is not that, and is going to struggle here because of it. Gracie will poke away with kicks at range, and will dominate any grappling exchanges that occur. If it hits the ground, I don’t think it’s long before he takes the back and finds a sub. Either way, I think this bouts ends with Gracie having a belt strapped around his wait. Kotetsu Boku is the more powerful and flashier striker of these two, but Narantungalag has excellent basics in the striking game and doesn’t waste much movement. I think those two things will combine to keep the striking exchanges cautious and very even in this one, but Narantungalag is the more stout grappler of the two. That is the edge I see carrying him to victory. Even if he isn’t scoring a ton of takedowns, he should be able to get Boku up against the cage and chip away from the clinch to slow Boku’s movement throughout the fight.

Written by Brad Taschuk

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