Invicta FC 5 Betting Preview

Jessica Penne vs Naho SugiyamaEvery Invicta show to date has delivered ‘show of the year’ level action, and now Shannon Knapp and her crew of WMMA’s brightest have a stacked card on Pay Per View to kick off Invicta’s 2013 run. Champs, challengers, vets and newcomers, this show has everything and looks like it should be a hell of a good time. Let’s just hope uStream has sorted out their issues and fans get to watch this event uninterrupted. In the night’s main event, atomweight champ Jessica Penne (10-1) looks to defend her title against the surging Michelle Waterson (10-3). Jessica Penne’s only loss comes to the much bigger Zoila Gurgel, with no one else coming close to defeating her. She has good striking, solid grappling and can overwhelm her opponent in a myriad of ways. Penne has good BJJ, great ground and pound, and since dropping to 105 pounds has looked fantastic. Waterson, as her “Karate Hottie” nickname suggests, is a Karate fighter, but she has six submissions and two knockouts to her name. She’ll need to use her speed and elusiveness to stay away from Penne’s power and takedowns if she wants to walk out with the bout. At Several Bookmakers, Penne opened as a big favorite at -405 (bet $405 to win $100), while Waterson came in as a +285 underdog (bet $100 to win $285). The co-main event of the night sees Barb Honchak (7-2) and Vanessa Porto (15-5) meeting for the 125lb Invicta title. Honchak has been looking good lately, and is currently on a six-fight winning streak including victories over the likes of Roxanne Modafferi and Felice Herrig. She has great speed and good movement on her feet, and uses this to outwork most of her opponents with ease. Porto was last seen destroying the legs of Tara LaRosa in a huge upset win to put her in this position. While Porto also has the option to go back to her ground game in this fight, the odds give Honchak the edge, as she opened -215 to Porto’s +165. This should be a great, close title fight. Finally, after more than a year away from the sport due to a PED suspension, Cris Cyborg (10-1) will fight reshuffled late replacement Fiona Muxlow (6-2). If you’ve seen Cyborg fight, you know she’s the most dominating force in WMMA history, and she may want to make a statement in her return fight with the MMA world abuzz with Ronda Rousey talk. Oddsmakers expect her to do just that, as she opened as a whopping -2000 favorite. Muxlow wants Cyborg on the ground, but the question is if she will have the power to get her there. The early answer from fans and pundits is no, and because of that, she checks in as a +1000 underdog. Cyborg has thrown around bigger opponents than Muxlow, so this looks to be a major uphill battle for the Australian. More like an up mountain battle. Former Strikeforce bantamweight champion, Sarah Kaufman (15-2), makes her return to the cage after being armbarred by Ronda Rousey last August. Standing across the cage from her will be Leslie Smith (5-2-1), a rising star in the Invicta cage that would surely benefit from a huge win over a top talent like Kaufman. Leslie Smith’s strength lies in her hands, and although Kaufman can box with anyone outside of Cyborg in WMMA, she has the far more developed ground game, and she may use it to get the W. Kaufman also has one of the few contracts the UFC has handed out to female fighters, and she’ll be looking to protect her spot in the Octagon here. Opening as a -290 favorite, there are expectations that Kaufman will be able to dispatch the far less seasoned Smith, whose comeback was +210. Ousted from Bellator after winning the the 115 pound tournament with three controversial decisions then never defending her belt is Zoila Frausto Gurgel. This is Zoila’s first fight outside Bellator in nearly three years, and she is also coming off her first loss in that same period of time, after being subbed by Jessica Eye in December. She’s dangerous wherever the fight goes, and able to sneakily survive just about any situation. Blocking Zoila’s next run at the top is Jennifer Maia (6-2-1), a Chute Boxe team member and BJJ ace. Zoila has everything it takes to win the fight, but she has to protect her back and neck from Maia’s grasp. When Maia has stepped up in competition before, she has faltered and Gurgel is certainly another step up. Oddsmakers have taken note, and made the former Bellator champion a -245 favorite, while the Chute Boxe product is +175. Bantamweights are next on the docket, with Kaitlin Young (7-7-1) and Lauren Taylor (5-0) stepping into the cage. Taylor is yet another late replacement who filled the spot of Amanda Nunes. Young is a long time WMMA vet, and has fought a who’s who of the female circuit (Miesha Tate, Gina Carano and Liz Carmouche, to name a few). In the combined 12 wins between these two, there are 11 knockouts, so expect these two to stand and trade and let the chips fall where they may. Taylor hasn’t fought someone as experienced as Young, but don’t count her out. This is anyone’s fight and could be the fight of the night. The odds reflect how close this fight is, as Young opened as a slight -135 favorite while Taylor is -105, by far the closest opening odds on the card. Next, featherweight Julia Budd (4-2) takes on one more late replacement in Mollie Estes (1-1). Budd has a great stand up game and has evolved into a decent wrestler with good ground and pound as well. Although Budd has looked extremely comfortable taking her opponents down and beating them up, Estes is somewhat comfortable off her back, even though she was TKO’d on the ground in her last bout. Estes isn’t a pushover, as her only loss came to wrestling Olympian Randi Miller, but Budd is a bright star who is rapidly improving. Budd opened as a second largest favorite on the card, at -420 and Estes at +300 seems to have a tough road ahead. The main card begins with Bec Hyatt (4-2) fresh off her late replacement loss against Carla Esparza for the strawweight title at Invicta 4. The fan favorite Australian faces the undefeated Austrian Jasminka Cive (5-0), owner of four knockouts. Cive has stopping power for sure, but Hyatt has a gigantic heart, is more well-rounded and has the ability to submit Cive. Those skills translated in Hyatt opening as a -230 favorite, while Cive sits at +170. The full list of Invicta FC 5 opening odds can be found below: ——————– MICHELLE WATERSON +285 JESSICA PENNE -405 VANESSA PORTO +165 BARB HONCHAK -215 FIONA MUXLOW +1000 CRISTIANE SANTOS -2000 LESLIE SMITH +210 SARAH KAUFMAN -290 JENNIFER MAIA +175 ZOILA FRAUSTO GURGEL -245 LAUREN TAYLOR -105 KAITLIN YOUNG -135 MOLLIE ESTES +300 JULIA BUDD -420 JASMINKA CIVE +170 BEC HYATT -230 ——————–

Written by Jason Nawara

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