After a week off to recover from Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz, the Octagon will head down under to Brisbane, Australia for UFC Fight Night 85. A pair of legends with very different approaches headline the event in the heavyweight division, as Mark Hunt takes on Frank Mir. Hunt will certainly be looking for the knockout, and this may finally be the striker who convinces Mir to employ his ground game again. Adopted Australian Hector Lombard will also make his return to the UFC after more than a year away due to a failed drug test after his UFC 182 bout. He will be taking on the continually undervalued Neil Magny, who may — for the first time — not be undervalued in a fight for once. The card also features an intriguing bout between a pair of prospects, as Johnny Case and Jake Matthews look to move forward in the lightweight division. TUF Brazil winner Antonio Carlos Junior also looks to keep moving up the middleweight ladder against Aussie Olympian Daniel Kelly. The final two fights of the main card are very different in nature. James Te Huna and Steve Bosse are very unlikely to see a second round as they both hit extremely hard and seem to have fading durability. The curtain jerker on the main card is a strawweight bout between Seo Hee Ham and Bec Rawlings that seems as though as finish may only come one the feet. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for UFC Fight Night 85 today at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 6:30pm ET)
——————– Updated Fight Card Odds: (Abel Trujillo had visa issues, Laprise now fights Pearson – Damien Brown in against Patrick – Scoggins Injured fight against Nguyen cancelled) Alan Patrick -300 Damien Brown +220 Over 2.5 -150 Under 2.5 +110 — Chad Laprise -145 Ross Pearson +105 Over 2.5 -155 Under 2.5 +115 — ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Case and Matthews seems like “show me” matchmaking by Joe Silva. Both guys looked impressive early in their UFC runs, but less so of late. Whoever wants to really be a prospect in the division moving forward needs to win this fight. I can see Matthews giving Case some trouble in spots with his strength and wrestling, but Case is the overall more talented fighter, and I expect him to pull out a decision or perhaps a late stoppage after wearing the young Aussie down a bit. Dan Kelly has harnessed the power of having two first names, and parlayed it into a 3-1 UFC record. His level of competition has not been particularly impressive however, and Antonio Carlos Junior is a massive step up from anyone he’s faced. Carlos Junior has all the physical advantages in this fight, and aside from straight up Judo, probably all of the technical ones as well. I think this is just a matter of time before the Brazilian makes the hometown fans cringe. Te Huna and Bosse will be over quick. Aside from that, it’s really the type of fight that screams “whoever lands first”. You have to assume Te Huna ends up landing that first shot, but I would in no way be comfortable betting it. I’m still hoping that Rawlings’ popularity ends up making Ham the underdog in this fight. I feel like this is finally the fight where Ham’s massive size disadvantage isn’t a gulf too big for her to overcome. She’s a better striker than Rawlings by a significant amount, and I don’t think Rawlings wrestling game is going to be good enough to control Ham even with a moderate size advantage. It’ll most likely be tight, and that’s why I won’t lay any juice on this fight, but Ham is the pick. Alan Jouban is going to be in a lot of parlays, and rightly so. His striking is well beyond O’Reilly, and I can’t picture the Aussie having any success trying to grapple with Jouban either. This is one of an increasing number of matches being made recently where the local fighter seems matched to lose. It’s strange that Justin Scoggins will be moving down the flyweight ladder, but Ben Nguyen should prove a more difficult task than Ray Borg. Borg offered nothing on the feet, which allowed Scoggins to focus on his takedown defense and picking apart the much shorter opponent. He won’t have the same sort of free reign on the feet against Nguyen, who has proven one of the most capable finishers at flyweight. As such, this could be another bout where we see Scoggins utilize his wrestling, but even in that pursuit, Nguyen has dogged takedown defense. The flyweight division is always full of tightly contested bouts, and should the public get too high on Scoggins in the wake of his last victory, this could be a spot to take a shot on the underdog. The biggest factor setting Walsh and Andrade apart will be Walsh’s pace. Andrade has long spells of inactivity, and struggles to maintain through 15 minutes. Walsh isn’t the most technically gifted fighter out there, but neither is Andrade, and the cardio and effort reside with the local fighter. Nakai/Smith is as weird as you would expect a Rin Nakai fight to be. She’s facing an undersized opponent whose best days are behind her, but aside from some rudimentary BJJ and pure strength, Nakai really doesn’t bring much to the table. Against Smith, that may be enough to secure the victory, but if she struggles at any point to get takedowns, Smith will be lighting her up on the feet and pushing her backwards constantly. I can’t bet this either way, since I can easily see either fighter’s style prevailing against their opponent, but have zero faith in both. Daniel Hooker is very hittable, and Mark Eddiva was fairly successful in navigating the similar length of Kevin Souza two fights ago, but I still have to side with Hooker here. He’s just far more diverse on the feet than Eddiva, and I can’t see Eddiva getting this to the ground regularly enough to take a decision. If Eddiva was a better wrestler, I’d consider staying away from Hooker, but at the opening price I think the skill disparity is enough to warrant Hooker as a parlay leg.