UFC 158 Picks: Welterweights Johny Hendricks (-135) vs. Carlos Condit (+115)

Carlos ConditUFC 158 Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec Saturday, March 16, 2013 Welterweight Fight: Johny Hendricks (-135) vs. Carlos Condit (+115) Fight Breakdown: A potential welterweight title shot is on the line in the co-main event of UFC 158, as the surging Johny Hendricks takes on the talented Carlos Condit in a three-round fight. Hendricks is currently a -135 favorite (bet $135 to win $100) at 5Dimes Sportsbook, while the comeback on Condit is +115 (bet $100 to win $115). Hendricks (14-1) is one of the most accomplished amateur wrestlers to ever compete in mixed martial arts, and he’s made an incredible transition to MMA considering his lack of experience in the striking game, going undefeated in his first 15 fights save for a close decision loss to Rick Story. Hendricks is known for his extremely powerful left hand that has seen him drop Jon Fitch and Martin Kampmann in one punch, as well as stop TJ Waldburger, Charlie Brenneman, and Amir Sadollah. He also holds decision wins over Josh Koscheck, Mike Pierce, and TJ Grant, giving Hendricks one of the most impressive resumes in the division. This fight against Condit is his ticket to a title shot so expect by far the best Hendricks we’ve ever seen to step into the cage on Saturday night and look for the finish to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt he’s the true No. 1 contender. Condit (28-6) is one of the best strikers in the welterweight division and one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport as a whole. Although he’s coming off a loss to Georges St-Pierre at UFC 154, it was an extremely good performance even in defeat as it showcased Condit’s heart and resiliency, as well as his knockout power. In his career, “The Natural Born Killer” — an apt nickname as he’s attained finishes in 26 of his 28 wins — holds notable victories over Nick Diaz, Dong Hyun Kim, Rory MacDonald, Jake Ellenberger, and Dan Hardy. He is an incredible fighter and he can most certainly defeat Hendricks if he fights smart, but if he gets careless and walks into a big left hand from Hendricks or doesn’t have the takedown defence to keep this fight standing, he will lose. Fight Prediction: I really don’t know how this fight is going to play out since both guys can win via stoppage, and both guys can win via decision. Ultimately I do give Hendricks the edge in wrestling, so I’ll pick him to win via decision with his mix of takedowns and heavy strikes, but it would not shock me at all if Condit edged him out on the cards. Adam’s Pick: Johny Hendricks via decision (click for latest UFC 158 odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: This is a close fight to call so I personally wouldn’t put my money on it. Maybe if Hendricks drops down closer to even money by fight time there’s a slight play to be made here, but honestly I think this is one fight to just pass on as far as a bet goes. Just watch it as a fan and enjoy, because it should be a great fight between two of the best fighters in the world.

Written by Adam Martin.

Leave a Reply

The MMAOddsCast: UFC 158 Betting Preview and Fight Card Analysis

UFC 158 Picks: Welterweight Title Georges St-Pierre (-550) vs. Nick Diaz (+425)