Prop Plays for UFC 195

kyle nokeUFC 195 Date: January 2, 2016 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Champion (UFC) is back in Las Vegas yet again tonight (January 2nd) to kick off the 2016 calendar year with UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit. The stacked 12-fight card is set to kick off with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm ET and televised prelims to follow on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my prop plays: Robbie Lawler (-110) vs Carlos Condit (-110) Lawler by Decision (+278) 1u to win 2.78u In short, I think this is the most likely outcome to this five round welterweight title fight. I think the fight hits the judges’ scorecards more often than not, where Lawler gets his hand raised more often than not. Andrei Arlovski (+205) vs Stipe Miocic (-225) Miocic by Decision (+190) 2u to win 3.8u Miocic is not exactly a knock-out artist, which is weird to say about such a strong heavyweight, and Arlovski does have the poor chin many suspected he did. I think Miocic grinds out a decision in this one, using dirty boxing against the cage and his wrestling to take the fight to the mat. He has good ground and pound, but I don’t see him stopping Arlovski with it. I think this fight hits the judges’ cards for a decision, and as long as Arlovski doesn’t take his third controversial decision in six fights, we should be looking at Miocic getting his hand raised and making it two in a row for himself inside the Octagon. Albert Tumenov (-250) vs Lorenz Larkin (+230) Larkin by Decision (+425) 2u to win 8.5u Many are counting Larkin out, but not me. Not only do I think he stands a chance, but I think he outright wins the fight, and I think he does so on the judges’ scorecards. Tumenov has a good chin and is tough to put away, which makes me favor the decision prop. I see Larkin outpointing him on the feet for the better of three rounds to take home the win, his third straight in the UFC’s welterweight division. Brian Ortega (-190) vs Diego Brandao (+165) Ortega Inside Distance (-105) 2.1u to win 2u Putting it simply, I believe Ortega is the superior fighter with the higher ceiling in the division. As long as he does not get caught and knocked out early, which I don’t think he will, then he should comfortably win this fight, and probably in dominant fashion. “T-City” all day. Abel Trujillo (+135) vs Tony Sims (-145) Sims in Round One (+325) 1u to win 3.25u I took Sims Inside Distance at +220 and was going to recommend it, but it has fallen all the way down to +139, so I have opted to pass on recommending it for a play, as I think there is more value in a straight play on Sims at -145. That said, I think there’s a good chance he gets it done in the first round, capitalizing on Trujillo’s early aggression. At +325, I think it’s worth a shot. I also got ‘Not Trujillo Inside Distance’ at -180 and it is at -312 now. Alex Morono (+275) vs Kyle Noke (-305) Noke by T/KO (+350) 1u to win 3.5u Noke -3.5 (-155) 3.1u to win 2u At first I thought thought Morono could be a live dog and worth a stab, but the more I looked into the fight, the more I began to like Noke. I think the veteran puts in a dominant performance in Las Vegas today, likely finishing Morono via T/KO. If it hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision, I think the New Mexico-based Australian handily takes all three rounds. I believe Morono is outgunned here and think his only way to win is to land a lucky knockout or submission and I think the chances of either happening are extremely slim. Joe Soto (+110) vs Michinori Tanaka (-130) Tanaka by Submission (+526) 1u to win 5.26u Tanaka -3.5 (+175) 1u to win 1.75u At this point in their careers, I believe Tanaka is the superior fighter. I see him dominating Soto on the mat in this contest and think theres a good chance he gets the submission finish. However, if the fight hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision, I favor Tanaka to take home a unanimous 30-27 nod.

Written by Gabe Killian

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