Main Card Plays for UFC Fight Night 81

Travis BrowneUFC Fight Night 81 Date: January 16, 2016 Arena: TD Garden City: Boston, MA The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will be making it’s return to the TD Garden in Boston, MA on Sunday, January 16th for UFC Fight Night 81: Dillashaw vs Cruz. The first Fight Night card of the year, UFC Fight Night 81 comes stacked with a 12-fight card that guarantees fireworks from start to finish. Preliminary action for this fight card will get underway at 6pm ET on UFC Fight Pass and will continue at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with main card action to follow at 10pm ET on the same channel. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my plays: Lightweight bout: Anthony Pettis (-345) vs Eddie Alvarez (+285) Gabe’s Thoughts: Putting it simply, I think Alvarez remains competitive on the feet and mixes in takedowns over the course of 15-minutes en route to a decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I see him putting Pettis on his back in this fight and I think that will help him seal rounds in the eyes of the judges. At his current underdog price of +285, I think there is a lot of value in him, as I think this is a coin-flip fight. Gabe’s Call: Alvarez by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Alvarez (+285) 3u to win 8.55u Heavyweight bout: Matt Mitrione (+135) vs Travis Browne (-155) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Mitrione is the superior striker heading into this heavyweight contest, but I favor Browne’s chances of both ending the fight with strikes and scoring more points over the course of three rounds to pick up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecard. If he opts to fight a smart, careful fight and goes into the Octagon with a good game-plan, I could see him taking this fight on the cards, but it is more likely that he will find a finish over the course of 15-minutes, even if he is not hunting for one. He could find an opening and secure the knockout finish, but even if he does not exactly find one, Mitrione could give him one, as he has been prone to doing in the past. He has had mental lapses, which have cost him his fights. Even in his most recent outing against Ben Rothwell, he was easily outstriking Rothwell and got too confident so he shot for a takedown, and then got quickly choked out. If he makes a small mistake against Browne in this fight, he can pay dearly. If Browne makes a small mistake, the result will be the same. It will be him waking up, staring at the lights. The only difference is that I think Browne’s chances of making a big mistake are really slim, while Mitrione’s chances of making a big mistake are really, um, big. This is the last fight on Mitrione’s contract before he enters free agency, so he is in desparate need of a victory here, especially considering the fact that he is coming off a loss. Gabe’s Call: Browne by T/KO (strikes, 1:21 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Browne (-155) 4.65u to win 3u

Written by Gabe Killian

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