Fights to Avoid Betting for UFC 193

holly-holmsUFC 193 Date: November 14, 2015 Arena: Etihad Stadium City: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Melbourne, Victoria, Australia for the first time in promotional history with UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm. The event will be feauturing 13 bouts in entirety, starting off with Fight Pass prelims at 6:15pm. The FOX Sports 1 prelims will get going at 8pm ET and the main card will kick off at 10pm ET on Pay Per View. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Women’s Bantamweight title bout: Holly Holm (+1200) vs Ronda Rousey (-1900) Gabe’s Thoughts: Holm is without a doubt the best striker Rousey has faced thus far in his professional mixed martial arts career, and while her own strkining has been improving by leaps and bounds, I don’t think she is going to want to test herself against Holm on the feet. I think Rousey closes the distance, gets the takedown, and finds a submission. I believe Holm is her toughest test to date, but I don’t see Rousey losing this fight. I think Rousey should be a -900 betting favorite here, so at these odds, you could say there is value in Holm, however there’s no way I could back her with my wallet. If Rousey does opt to test her striking against Holm, this fight can play out longer than many expect and could potentially reach the judges’ scorecards. That outcome would not surprise me, but it’s not what I expect. I expect old school Rousey this Saturday night, wrapping up the show with a submission. There’s some value in the Over 1.5 round Total at +320, but I can’t get myself to make a move on that. This is a fight I will have to avoid at the sportsbooks come Saturday. Gabe’s Call: Rousey by Submission (rear naked choke, 4:48 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Lightweight bout: Akbarh Arreola (+600) vs Jake Matthews (-900) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Matthews is being tremendously overvalued in this match-up, especially considering the fact that he is coming off a fight in which he was finished, marking the first official loss of his pro career. I do think that he should be a massive favorite, but -900 is really pushing it. I think he should be -400, which means there is value in Arreola at his current offering price of +600. That said, I cannot get myself to make a play on the Mexican, as I am not convinced he is a UFC-calibre athlete. I see Matthews cruising in this match-up, but as far as a bet goes, there really isn’t a play worth making here. This is a fight we are best off avoiding at the sportsbooks this weekend. Gabe’s Call: Matthews by T/KO (punches, 3:56 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Middleweight bout: Daniel Kelly (+230) vs Steve Montgomery (-270) Gabe’s Thoughts: I was considering making a play on the Total of Under 1.5 rounds at -150 for this bout but could not get myself to pull the trigger on it. I could easily see a first round finish coming on either end but I could also see this being an uneventful three rounds of action, with either Montgomery sticking and moving or Kelly attempting to grind Montgomery out. I do favor a finish here, and if the line was +100 or better, I think I would have made a move on it, but at the current price, I’m going to look past it. As far as the fighters go, at these odds, I think it is a dog or pass situation and I can’t talk myself into putting my money behind 38-year old Dan Kelly. Any which way you look at it, there’s no play that is worth making on this card, and even though I still think there’s a decent chance the Under 1.5 comes through, I feel like this is a scrap that is best left alone this weekend. Gabe’s Call: Montgomery by T/KO (strikes, 1:04 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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