Prop Plays for UFC 192

Sep 4, 2013; Belo Horizonte, BRAZIL; Ali Bagautinov reacts during his match against Marcos Vinicius Vina (not pictured) during UFC Fight Night at Mineirinho Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports UFC 192 Date: October 3, 2015 Arena: Toyota Center City: Houston, TX The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Houston, TX for the fourth time in promotional history this tonight (October 3, 2015) with UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson. The action-packed and stacked 12-fight card kicks off on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30pmpm ET, with televised prelims following on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET and main card action getting going on Pay Per View at 10pm. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. Here are my prop plays for UFC 192: Ruslan Magomedov (-190) vs Shawn Jordan (+175) Magomedov -3.5 (-140) 2.8u to win 2u Magomedov in Round Two (+500) .25u to win 1.25u Magomedov in Round Three (+900) .5u to win 4.5u I like Magomedov to pick up a big win here, possibly earning his first stoppage victory inside the Octagon. Both heavyweights are well conditioned but I think Magomedov holds an advantage in the department, so if he fails to secure a finish in the first stanza (which I think he has a good chance of doing) then I think he will have a decent chance of making it happen in the second or third frame, when Jordan slightly slows down. Should he fail to find a finish, I think he will take home a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, having won all three rounds of action. Joseph Benavidez (-315) vs Ali Bagautinov (+285) Bagautinov [scorecards = no action] (+206) 1u to win 2.06u Bagautinov by T/KO (+975) .4u to win 3.9u Benavidez by Decision (-125) 1.25u to win 1u I think the only way Bagautinov wins this fight is by catching Benavidez and knocking him out, and I would not be surprised if that happened. “Puncher King” is certainly a heavy hitter for a flyweight, as his moniker would suggest. I think he is very capable of catching “Joe B” and putting his lights out. That said, I think Benavidez gets his hand raised in this contest more often than not, and despite the fact that he will be hungry for a finish, I think he takes it on the judges’ scorecards more often than not. Bagautinov is very tough to put away, as was evident during his failed bid for Demetrious Johnson’s 125-pound gold. Chris Cariaso (+175) vs Sergio Pettis (-190) Pettis +3.5 (+145) 2u to win 2.9u Pettis by T/KO (+420) .25u to win 1.05u Pettis by Submission (+822) .5u to win 4.11u Pettis [scorecards = no action] (-235) 4.7u to win 2u I think “The Phenom” takes home an impressive victory in this flyweight contest, ultimately returning to the win column while handing Cariaso his third straight defeat. I like Pettis’ chances of winning by decision more than I do by finish, but the T/KO and Submission props on him offer too great of a value to pass up, in my opinion. Alan Jouban (+240) vs Albert Tumenov (-260) Jouban by Submission (+2000) 2u to win 40u This is simply a value play, as I think the line for Jouban finishing the fight via submission should be +500. Should he get his hand raised, I think it is more likely it will either come on the judges’ scorecards or by T/KO, but I see a whole lot more value in this prop than in Jouban by Dec (+422) and Jouban by T/KO (+619). I think the odds of him winning by T/KO are only slightly greater than him winning by submission. Tumenov has a good chin and is tough to put away on the feet. He is not easy to finish by submission, either, but I think Jouban has a massive edge in the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu department, and should the fight hit the mat, this +2000 betting line would prove to be a true gift. Derrick Lewis (+140) vs Viktor Pesta (-150) Pesta by Decision (+480) 2u to win 3.1u Pesta in Round Two (+575) .6u to win 3.45u Pesta in Round Three (+1375) .8u to win 11u Pesta will be enjoying a cardio advantage heading into this heavyweight affair, so I see the fight favoring him after the first round, should he survive the stanza against the very dangerous and heavy hitting Lewis. Pesta is a threat himself in the first round, but I think the fight is pretty close in the initial frame, but favors Pesta a lot more come rounds two and three. I could see Pesta finishing this fight at any moment, but I see value in the props for rounds two and three, as well as the decision prop. If this heavyweight scrap makes it out of the first round, I think Pesta either finds a finish within the remaining 10 minutes or takes home a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards.

Written by Gabe Killian

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