UFC Fight Night 73 Date: August 8, 2015 Arena: Bridgestone Arena City: Nashville, TN The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Nasvhille, TN for the third time in promotional history this Saturday (August 8, 2015) for UFC Fight Night 73: Saint Preux vs Teixeira. The 13-fight card will get going with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm, with FOX Sports 2 prelims to follow at 8pm and main card action being live at 10pm ET on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Over/Under Totals for UFC Fight Night 73 in Nashville are: Heavyweight bout: Jared Rosholt (-230) vs Timothy Johnson (+190) Gabe’s Thoughts: Simply put, I think Rosholt winning via decision is the most likely outcome to this heavyweight contest. I see him scoring takedowns early and grinding Johnson out throughout all three rounds of action. That said, the Total of Over 1.5 rounds at -175 appeals to me much more than Rosholt straight up at -230. I think this fight goes past the 1.5 round mark much more often than not. Gabe’s Call: Rosholt by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds (-175) 3.5u to win 2u Middleweight bout: Oluwale Bamgbose (+335) vs Urijah Hall (-420) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this fight is a “dog or pass” situation, as I lean with Hall for my pick but don’t think he is worth the asking price. The value for a bet here is with the short-notice promotional newcomer Bamgose, but another bet with great value that I think is a safer play is the Total of Under 1.5 rounds at +120. If Bamgose gets the job done, I think the win will most likely come by way of knockout, and very likely in the first stanza. As for Hall, should he find himself victorious, I think it is a coin-flip whether he gets a finish or takes it on the judges’ scorecards. The dog is tempting but I’m passing on him straight up and taking the Under. Gabe’s Call: Hall by T/KO (strikes, 2:50 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (+120) 1u to win 1.2u Women’s Bantamweight bout: Amanda Nunes (+205) vs Sara McMann (-245) Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, I think the most likely outcome to this women’s 135-pound contest is McMann using her superior wrestling to win at least two out of three rounds on the judges’ scorecards for a decision victory. Gabe’s Call: McMann by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-150) 2.25u to win 1.5u Bantamweight bout: Frankie Saenz (-140) vs Sirwan Kakai (+120) Gabe’s Thoughts: This my be too quick of a turnaround for Kakai following his last bout and it could cost him. He is a big bantamweight so I would not be confident backing him in this spot. Quick turnaround or not, I would favor Saenz in this spot, however the quck turnaround does make me like him more. Normally I would say Saenz -150, but now I think Saenz should be -180. There’s enough value to make a small play on him, however I am not overly confident in it. The play I am confident in and see great value in despite it’s juicy asking price of -260 is the Total of Over 2.5 rounds. I think that line should be at -400, as I think this 135-pound bout hits the cards much more often than not. Gabe’s Call: Saenz by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-260) 2.6u to win 1u Light Heavyweight bout: Chris Dempsey (+150) vs Jonathan Wilson (-170) Gabe’s Thoughts: I see this is a “dog or pass” situation in which I ultimately passed on making a straight play on the dog at +150 and rather making a play on the Total of Over 1.5 rounds at -130. I think there is value in the dog, as I think he should be a slight -130 favorite in this spot, especially having proven himself with a win over Eddie Gordon in his latest Octagon outing. I favor Dempsey in this spot, and should he get his hand, I think it will come on the judges’ scorecards more often than not. On the same note, should Wilson win, I think he will either get his win on the cards or a late finish, so while Dempsey at +150 offers a better return, I think the Over 1.5 rounds at -130 has more value and is the safer play to make. Gabe’s Call: Dempsey by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds (-130) 3.25u to win 2.5u
