UFC Betting Preview: UFC on FUEL TV 7 Odds for Preliminary Card Bouts

Renee-Forte UFC on Fuel TV 7: Barao vs. McDonald comes to us live from Wembley Arena in London, United Kingdom this Saturday night with an absolutely stacked night of fights. In the preliminary bouts, plenty of homegrown UK stars are showcased, and none as recognizable to UK MMA fans as Tom ‘Kong’ Watson (15-5). This former BAMMA middleweight champion and Cage Rage standout takes on Bulgarian Stanislov Nedkov (12-0-1), who is cutting down to 185 for the first time. Watson opened as a -140 favorite (bet $140 to win $100) on the MMA odds, while Nedkov is a slight underdog at EVEN money (bet $100 to win $100). Nedkov is 1-0-1 after an original submission loss to Thiago Silva was overturned after Silva failed his post-fight drug test at UFC on FUEL TV 6, so Nedkov is still technically undefeated. Watson is a complete fighter, but he’s never tested himself against the type of competition he’s seeing in the UFC. He lost his debut to Brad Tavares at UFC on Fuel TV 5: Struve vs. Miocic via a close split-decision and looks to bounce back against Nedkov this Saturday. Both men are extremely capable of fighting standing or on the ground, so this middleweight fight should be a close scrap. Featherweights are up next, with Andy Ogle (8-2) vs. one-time No. 1 contender Josh Grispi (14-4). Grispi opened as a -230 favorite, while Ogle opened as a +170 underdog. Grispi at one point was promised a shot at Aldo’s featherweight title, but he opted to take a fight against then-newcomer Dustin Poirier at UFC 125 instead. What has happened since is almost storybook. Grispi has dropped three fights in a row, and has gone from title shot to fighting for his job. His skills aren’t really the issue; instead it seems like Grispi has lost traction in the most important part of a martial artist’s body – his head. His back is up against the wall now, and he’s facing Ogle, a relative newcomer to MMA at only 23-years-old, but still a threat, especially on the feet. Ogle lost his promotional debut to Akira Corassani last year, but the last time Ogle lost, he went on a seven-fight win streak afterwards, so we’ll see how these two rebounding fighters deal with adversity. At lightweight, submission ace Paul Sass (13-1) makes his return to the Octagon to face Danny Castillo (14-5) with both fighters looking to bounce back from losses. The fight opened as a Pick ’em, with both guys opening at -120. Sass lost the first fight of his career in a shocking upset to Matt Wiman last September when the UFC visited Nottingham and he was submitted. Meanwhile, Castillo was last seen in the Octagon having his three-fight winning streak broken when he was knocked out by Michael Johnson at UFC on FX 5: Browne vs. Bigfoot. But Sass is unbelievably dangerous on the ground — his MMA grappling is like a sharpened blade prepared for battle and he attacks opponents with a voraciousness rarely seen out of a grappler in the modern era of MMA. Castillo has been in the Zuffa ranks for years. He’s a WEC vet and has amassed a 4-2 UFC record over the likes of Anthony Njokuani, Joe Stevenson and Shamar Bailey. Castillo is a BJJ brown belt, but he will try to keep the fight standing to impose his will on Sass. Finally, to wrap up the prelims, lightweight Terry Etim (15-4) makes his first return to the Octagon since his highlight reel KO loss to the feet of a spinning Edson Barboza back at UFC 142. He stands across the cage from TUF: Brazil veteran Renee Forte (7-2). Etim opened as a big -350 favorite, while Forte opened as a +250 underdog. Ring rust could definitely be a factor for Etim, who hasn’t fought in a year, but outside the exhibition fights on TUF, Forte has fought only one professional fight since May of 2011, a losing effort against Sergio Moraes at UFC 153. Both men possess good stand-up skills and both men are large for lightweight; Forte, for example, is coming down from welterweight. Both men have nearly equal ground games on paper, but Etim has shined with four “Submission of the Night” awards in the UFC, so we have to give the edge to him for all intents and purposes. Here are the opening lines for UFC on FUEL TV 7: ——- Renee Forte  +250 Terry Etim -350 2.5 Over  +130 2.5 Under -170 ——- Danny Castillo -120 Paul Sass -120 1.5 Over +145 1.5 Under -185 ——- Andy Ogle +170 Josh Grispi -230 1.5 Over -185 1.5 Under +145 ——- Stanislav Nedkov +100 Tom Watson -140 1.5 Over -185 1.5 Under +145 ——- Motonobu Tezuka +140 Vaughan Lee -180 2.5 Over -170 2.5 Under +130 ——- Phil Harris +180 Ulysses Gomez -260 2.5 Over -125 2.5 Under -115

Written by Jason Nawara

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