Frank Mir vs Todd Duffee – UFC Fight Night 71 Statistical Analysis and Pick

UFC Fight Night 71 July 15th, 2015 Heavyweight Matchup: Frank Mir vs Todd Duffee By @fightnomics It’s going to be tough to top the fight cards of the last week, but while many fans try to recover from the big annual Vegas blowout, they’re going to be hit by two Heavyweights set to collide in a San Diego main event. Fortunately for us, not literally hit by them; because it appears that if either man lands a clean shot on anyone, they’ll destroy them. Former champion and current No. 10 Heavyweight Frank Mir is currently the underdog at +165 to unranked Todd Duffee at -190. The pedigree, experience and rankings of the two men are in glaring contrast to the market’s perception of the matchup between them. So let’s consider their performance   Summary Stats:

Uber Tape Mir-Duffee To see more Uber Tales of the Tape for this UFC fight card, check out MMA Oddsbreaker Premium.

  Tale of Tape Matchup: The traditional tale of the tape tells us that Frank Mir as the Southpaw would normally get a small edge, but not when he’s giving up a 6.5-year Youth Advantage to Todd Duffee. That’s probably the biggest factor separating these two, so the edge instead goes to the younger man, who has been through fewer wars, and is expected to be the larger and more powerful fighter on fight night. But the tale of the tape isn’t everything, especially in this instance.   Striking Matchup: The standing matchup is how this fight will start, and probably how it will end shortly thereafter. Both guys pack a big punch, but most are giving Duffee the power edge. However, on a strike for strike basis Frank Mir’s power tops Duffee’s. Both men score highly in Knockout Rate, and so ultimately a clean shot from either guy is usually enough to hurt an opponent. In terms of the more technical stats of accuracy and defense, Duffee comes out ahead on paper, but with a huge caveat on his sample size and quality of opponents. Only one of his UFC opponents is still in the promotion, so the fact that his accuracy and defense are both very good could be misleading. Frank Mir’s boxing is not bad, and his stats are deflated by going toe-to-toe with some excellent strikers like Junior Dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Mirko Cro Cop. Duffee’s only experience with a highly ranked opponent was getting KO’d in 19 seconds by Overeem. One stat that is usually honest is the Chin. Mir is older and has been dropped many more times in recorded competition than Duffee. But Duffee was knocked out by very few strikes landed against Mike Russow. So Duffee appears to have tons of power, but not much resiliency to take punches. With two heavyweights like these, the combination of power and vulnerability spells an early finish one way or the other. But in this case, it also gives Frank Mir an opening for an upset.   Grappling Matchup: If this fight hits the ground, it will be Frank Mir’s world. Mir’s submission game has caught physical monsters like Brock Lesnar, and even high level grapplers like Big Nog. Todd Duffee is one, but not the other, and he will very likely not want this fight to get up close and personal. Mir’s wrestling is above average. He attempts takedowns at a high rate, and lands them with decent success. Duffee on the other hand, has yet to attempt a single takedown, and is highly unlikely to try for one here. To date, Duffee has faced 10 takedowns in the UFC, and defended all but one of them. That looks good on paper, but again belies the lack of high level opponents that he’s faced. Make no mistake, Mir is the only one who would decide to make this a grappling match, and Duffee knows that. But if Mir succeeds in getting Duffee down, we could see an exotic submission attempt to try to expose Duffee’s limited experience.   Fightnomics Pick: The Under, Mir Inside the Distance (Click for latest MMA odds)   Fightnomics Recommended Play:  Mir as an underdog is a reasonable play, as he can finish this fight anywhere in the cage given an opportunity. The risk is all about whether Duffee can land a clean shot before getting hit himself, or getting taken down and submitted. Duffee could very well finish the fight in the opening minute, in which case the Under is a slightly cheaper play than Duffee straight up. But the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Mir, and Mir has enough weapons in his arsenal to find an opening eventually. The Under of 1.5 rounds is currently -175, revealing the strong opinion that this fight isn’t expected to last long. Taking the under on such a tight limit is expensive, but in this case it’s warranted given that we probably won’t see more than a few real striking exchanges before one man falls. The only thing that will delay a quick finish is if Mir can get close to stall in the clinch and/or get the fight to the mat. Mir inside the distance is +172, which is barely better than taking him straight up. Still, a decision is quite unlikely. In fact, the Inside the Distance prop for the fight is a ridiculous -1750, which is more than the same line for Ronda Rousey’s next fight, and could be a record. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here.

Written by Reed Kuhn

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