UFC Fight Night 68’s Fights to Avoid Betting

PoirierUFC Fight Night 68 Date: June 6, 2015 Arena: Smoothie King Center City: New Orleans, Louisiana The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to New Orleans, LA this Saturday night (June 6th, 2015) with UFC Fight Night 68: Henderson vs Boetsch. The 12-fight card will feature a six fight card to be live on FOX Sports 1 at 10pm ET, and preliminary action will precede it on the same channel at 8pm ET, with a pair of bouts streaming live prior to that on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in wagering on this this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. My Fights to AVOID betting for UFC Fight Night 68 in New Orleans are: Catchweight bout: Dustin Poirier (-185) vs Yancy Medeiros (+170) Gabe’s Thoughts: I was considering making a play on the underdog Medeiros in this contest, but the Hawaiian stepped on the scale 4.5lbs overweight at the weigh-ins today, so for that reason I am opting to bail on that potential play and skip this scrap altogether. Gabe’s Call: Poirier by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Bantamweight bout: Alex Caceres (+100) vs Francisco Rivera (-120) Gabe’s Thoughts: I find this a very tough fight to call and could realistically see it playing out so many different ways. This is a classic “sit back and enjoy” type of fight for me, being a fan of both bantamweights and having no real feel either way as far as a bet/value-play is concerned. As long as Caceres avoids Rivera’s heavy shots, I think he walks away with the win here, but Rivera’s heavvy hands are not the easiest things to avoid, which makes it tough to play Caceres at near pick’em odds. I lean towards “Bruce Leeroy” getting his hand raised but I can’t recommend a play here, so I say this is a fight to be avoided at the sportsbooks tomorrow night. Gabe’s Call: Caceres by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Middleweights bout: Jake Collier (+165) vs Ricardo Abreu (-190) Gabe’s Thoughts: Collier was upset by Vitor Miranda in his promotional debut. After dominating nearly the enitirety of the first stanza, he was knocked out with a head-kick with only a second remaining in the frame. Coming off the loss, he faces another Brazilian in Abreu, who looks to remain undefeated against Collier. I believe both of these 185-pounders are legit and have a future with the promotion, however in this particular bout I am slightly leaning towards the Brazilian to pick up the win and keep his undefeated record intact. That said, I will not be backing him with my wallet, as I think this is a fight that is closer than the betting odds suggest. In fact, if I were to make a wager, I would have to take a shot at the underdog Collier, as I think there is slight value with him at his current betting tag of +165. I view this as a “dog or pass” situation, but rather than making a small value play on the underdog, I am opting to avoid wagering on this contest. This is likely going to be a good one, so I’ll just kick back and enjoy. Gabe’s Call: Abreu by Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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