UFC 156 Picks: Featherweight Title Fight Jose Aldo (-205) vs. Frankie Edgar (+155)

edgar-vs-aldo UFC 156 Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, NV Saturday, February 2, 2013 Featherweight Title Fight: Jose Aldo (-205) vs. Frankie Edgar (+155) Fight Breakdown: UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo puts his belt on the line for the fourth time in the UFC when he takes on former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar in the main event of UFC 156. Aldo enters as the favorite at -205 (bet $205 to win $100), while Edgar is the underdog at +155 (bet $100 to $155). Aldo (21-1) is the UFC featherweight champ and has defended his title three-straight times in the UFC since his transfer from the WEC, where he won the title and then defended it twice. Aldo is extremely dangerous in the standup with a wide arsenal of strikes from all of his limbs. In his last outing, he was able to knock out Chad Mendes with a knee at the 4:59 mark of round one during his title fight in Brazil at UFC 142, exhibiting just how dangerous he is. But that fight took place last January, so Aldo will enter this fight against Edgar with more than a year of ring rust because of various injuries suffered last year, including a nasty foot injury suffered in a motorcycle accident that cancelled his planned UFC 153 fight with Edgar. Aside from his top-notch striking, Aldo is also a BJJ black belt and his takedown defence has been near flawless. He’s an amazing fighter and one of the best pound-for-pound mixed martial artists in the world, but Edgar is his toughest test to date. Edgar (15-3-1) is the former UFC lightweight champion and is coming off two-straight controversial decision losses to Benson Henderson at UFC 144 and UFC 150. That decision at UFC 150, in particular, was considered a robbery verdict by many, and that’s why UFC president Dana White had no problem giving Edgar an immediate title shot in his first fight at the 145lb weight class. It will be interesting to see how Edgar reacts to the weight cut, but I don’t think he should have any problems shedding the pounds considering he was fighting undersized at 155. As far as fighting styles go, Edgar is a boxer who mixes in his takedowns well. He’s blazing fast, smart, and has tons of experience in big fights against bigger opponents. He also has a chin of granite. Edgar’s key to beating Aldo will be to survive the brutal first-round assault that Aldo always brings, and if he can do that, then he may be able to be push the pace for the remaining rounds and tire Aldo out en route to a decision, but it won’t be a victory that comes easy by any means. Fight Prediction: It’s hard to go against a dominant champion like Aldo but I think Edgar has the tools to pull off the upset. Although Aldo can never be counted of of a fight, I believe Edgar will use his speed, boxing, and wrestling in order to score enough points enough five rounds to win a unanimous decision. Be warned that he may get knocked down in the early rounds, but if he survives Aldo’s early onslaught then it’s Edgar’s fight to lose because there’s no doubt in my mind he’ll have the cardio advantage in the later rounds, as we’ve seen Aldo fade in the later rounds before, especially during his UFC 129 fight against Mark Hominick. Adam’s Pick: Edgar via decision (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: Edgar is around +175 in most spots right now and I think you have to take a stab it at just based on the value alone.

Written by Adam Martin.

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