Prop Plays for UFC Fight Night 64 in Krakow

Sheldon-WestcottUFC Fight Night 64 Date: April 11, 2015 Arena: Tauron Arena City: Krakow, Poland The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) makes a trip to Poland for the first time in UFC history with UFC Fight Night 64, which will be live tomorrow from Krakow, Poland and headlined by a heavyweight rematch between Mirko Cro Cop and Gabriel Gonzaga. The 12-fight card will stream entirely live on UFC Fight Pass, with the four-fight main card kicking off at 1pm ET and eight-fight preliminary action preceding it at 11:15am ET. If interested in wagering on these props, or any fights on this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my prop plays for UFC Fight Night 64 in Krakow: Pawel Pawlak (+185) vs Sheldon Westcott (-200) Westcott by T/KO (+584) .3u to win 1.75u Westcott -3.5 (-115) .86u to win .75u To put it simply, I think Westcott likely gets a stoppage in this fight, but if Pawlak manages to survive, I think there’s a good chance Westcott takes all three rounds on the judges’ scorecards for the unanimous nod. Leon Edwards (-130) vs Seth Baczynski (+120) Baczynski +3.5 (-145) 1.45u to win 1u Baczynski ITD (+228) .5u to win 1.14u Baczynski in Round Two (+675) .4u to win 2.7u Baczynski in Round Three (+1200) .15u to win 1.8u Baczynski by Decision (+424) .25u to win 1.06u Went a little crazy on this fight, but I think “The Polish Pistola” is going to get it done against Edwards and return to the win column. I think it’s a coin-flip whether he takes it on the judges’ scorecards or finishes the fight. Edwards is a solid fighter, but I think the veteran Baczysnki is the better fighter of the two and will manage to get things done this morning in Krakow. Bartosz Fabinski (-125) vs Garreth McLellan (+115) Fabinski by Decision (+265) 1u to win 2.65u Fabinski -3.5 (+150) .5u to win .75u I think Fabinski winning a decision is the most likely outcome to this welterweight match-up. I favor the Pole to get his hand raised in front of his home town crowd, and I favor the victory to come on the judges’ scorecards. Mickael Lebout (+400) vs Sergio Moraes (-450) Moraes ITD (-136) .95u to win .7u Moraes -3.5 (-260) .65u to win .25u In short, I think the Brazilian adds another submission victory to his professional mixed martial arts resume when he enters the Octagon against the promotional newcomer Lebout. Damian Stasiak (-125) vs Yaotzin Meza (+115) Stasiak ITD (+257) .8u to win 2.05u Stasiak in Round One (+500) .3u to win 1.5u Stasiak -3.5 (+160) .5u to win .8u Stasiak should win this fight, and I see Meza as an opponent he should be able to finish. I favor a submission, but a T/KO would not surprise me in the least, which is why I opted with the ITD prop, rather than going with T/KO prop. I think there is a decent chance he finishes this fight early. The only thing worrisome is that he is taking this fight after last competing just two weeks ago, but he is the superior mixed martial artist heading into the match-up and his size and strength advantages, as well as advantages in technique and skill-set should all add up and equal to a victory for him. Aleksandra Albu (-220) vs Izabela Badurek (+200) Albu ITD (+165) 1u to win 1.65u Albu in Round One (+375) .4u to win 1.5u Albu -3.5 (-125) .5u to win .4u I believe Albu is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this women’s strawweight contest and think there is a good chance she makes quick work of Poland’s Badurek. Rocky Lee (+175) vs Taylor Lapilus (-190) Lee by Decision (+472) 1u to win 4.72u I think this is the most likely outcome to this featherweight contest and see great value in this line. Lee is the superior grappler and I expect him to expose the holes in Lapilus’ grappling defense over the course of three rounds of action en route to picking up his first UFC victory on the judges’ scorecards.

Written by Gabe Killian

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UFC Fight Night 64 Play: Yaotzin Meza (+115) vs Damian Stasiak (-125)