UFC Fight Night 63 Play: Carlos Diego Ferreira (+165) vs Dustin Poirier (-190)

Carlos Diego FerreiraUFC Fight Night 63 Date: April 4, 2015 Arena: Patriot Center City: Fairfax, VA Lightweight bout: Carlos Diego Ferreira (+165) vs Dustin Poirier (-190) Fight Breakdown: Kicking things off for the UFC Fight Night 63 main card on FOX Sports 1 will be a lightweight contest that sees former Legacy FC lightweight champion Carlos Diego Ferreira welcome American Top Team’s Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier to the UFC’s 155-pound division. The Brazilian is a +165 ($100 to win $165) underdog heading into the contest, with Poirier being a -190 ($185 to win $100) favorite at Several Bookmakerss. Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) is coming off the first loss of his professional mixed martial arts career, which came against Beneil Dariush by unanimous decision at UFC 179 five months ago. The loss snapped his two-fight winning streak, which included a first round submission of Colton Smith, which came in his promotional debut, and a second round knockout of Ramsey Nijem. He aims to return to the win column this Saturday night when he welcomes “The Diamond” to the UFC’s lightweight division. The 30-year old is a 3rd degree black-belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is without question incredibly talented on the mat. He has a good chin, throws solid leg kicks and works beautiful takedowns, often quickly taking his opponents’ backs in the process. He is very slick and quick on the mat, and will capitalize on any split-second of an opening for a submission opportunity. To compliment his excellent submission game, Ferreira works a good ground and pound attack that gets opponents to give up their necks for a choke. He is a well-conditioned fighter who will be ready for a full 15-minutes of action this Saturday night. Dustin Poirier (16-4 MMA, 8-3 UFC) suffered a first round TKO defeat at the hands of current UFC featherweight title challenger Conor McGregor at UFC 178 six months ago, and the loss snapped is three-fight winning streak which included a unanimous decision over Erik Koch and T/KO’s of Diego Brandao and Akira Corassani. Following the defeat, he the WEC veteran has opted to move up to the 155-pound division, which is where he competed prior to cutting down to featherweight for his UFC debut; he posted an 8-1 professional record as a lightweight, going 1-1 in the WEC promotion before being moved over to the UFC. Poirier’s striking is average at best, but he shows improvement in the department from fight to fight. He is a southpaw who possesses a nice straight left and likes to look for his power punch, which is the over-hand left. The holes in his striking were seriously exposed in previous match-ups that he won anyways. Max Halloway, Jonathan Brookins and Akira Corassani were all getting the better of Poirier on the feet, until he used his superior BJJ to submit Holloway and Brooks, and broke Corassani’s nose, forcing him to quit. “The Diamond” is a tough fighter who has a lot of heart. He is a talented grappler, owning a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and always looking for the finish. Training out of American Top Team in Coconut Creek, FL., Poirier should show improved cardio at 155-pounds and will have enough in the tank for a 15-minute war against the Texas-based Brazilian, should this scrap see it’s way to the judges’ scorecards for a decision. Gabe’s Thoughts: To put it simply, I think Ferreira is the superior striker in this match-up, as well as the superior grappler, and I think he should be a 2-to-1 favorite, so I really like him for a play at his current underdog price of +165. I think a T/KO, submission and decision are all equally likely outcomes for Ferreira in this contest, and with that in mind, Ferreira by T/KO at +600 could be worth a stab, as it offers more value than Ferreira by Submission (+400) and Ferreira by Decision (+450). As far as props go, I think the value is mostly with the T/KO prop, however having to make a prediction for the final outcome to the contest, I am leaning with the Brazilian getting the job done on the scorecards. Gabe’s Call: Ferreira by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ferreira (+165) 4.25u to win 7.01u

Written by Gabe Killian

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