UFC 184’s Fights to Avoid Betting

rfa-6UFC 184 Date: 02/28/15 Arena: Staples Center City: Los Angeles, CA The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is finally set to return to Los Angeles this Saturday night (February 28, 2014) for UFC 184. The event will feature an entirety of 11 bouts, including a five-fight main card that will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm ET. Preliminary action will precede it at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with a pair of scraps coming before that on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested on making any wagers for this fight card, all lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My fights to AVOID betting for UFC 184 are: Middleweight bout: Mark Munoz (-330) vs Roan Carneiro (+270) Gabe’s Thoughts: I was seriously considering Carneiro for one of my live dog plays on this card, but have not been able to pull the trigger on it. I do think there’s a bit of value in him at +270, but apparently it does not move me enough to make a wager. I could see numerous possible outcomes to this match-up, but I think Munoz gets his hand raised more often than not, by either T/KO or decision. That said, it would not at all surprise me to see Carneiro win by T/KO, decision or even submission. After putting a lot of thought into this fight, I think the safest play is no play, so I’ll be staying away from this one tomorrow night. Gabe’s Call: Munoz by T/KO (punches, 3:46 round 3) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Lightweight bout: James Krause (-185) vs Valmir Lazaro (+160) Gabe’s Thoughts: One of these 155-pounders will return to the win column on Saturday, while the other will drop to 0-2 in his last two. This fight is a tough one for me to really get a grasp on and comfortably/confidently predict, especially because I’m not sure if we have yet to see Lazaro perform up to his full potential. I think this is a fight he could win, however I slightly lean with Krause to get his hand raised in this match-up, but I don’t think he is worth playing at his current betting price of -185. At pick ‘em odds, it might be something to think about, but at these odds, I couldn’t justify a play so it ultimately has to be avoided at the sportsbooks tomorrow night. Gabe’s Call: Krause by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Featherweight bout: Masio Fullen (-160) vs Alexander Torres (+140) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a fight between two veterans of TUF: Latin America who both lost their first fights on the show. I don’t think either of these fighters belong in the UFC at this point in their careers. I slightly lean with Torres to get his hand raised, but couldn’t justify playing him, even his current underdog price of +140. If I wanted to gamble, then yeah I’d play him, as I think this is a classic “dog or pass” situation. However, this is not a risk I am willing to take, and just do not feel comfortable backing him with my wallet. There are too many question marks currently surrounding both fighters, and I would rather sit back and watch them be answered tomorrow night. I think we’re best off avoiding this one. Gabe’s Call: Torres by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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