UFC Fight Night 61 Fights to Avoid Betting

cody gibsonUFC Fight Night 61 Date: 02/22/15 Arena: Gigantinho Gymnasium City: Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Brazil on Sunday, February 22nd with UFC Fight Night 61: Bigfoot vs Mir. The event will feature an entirety of 12-bouts, including a six-fight main card that will be live on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET. Preliminary action will precede it on FOX Sports 2 at 6pm ET with four fights, and two fights before it at 5pm ET on UFC Fight Pass. If interested on making any wagers for this fight card, all lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My fights to AVOID betting for UFC Fight Night 61 in Brazil are: Middleweight bout: Cezar Ferreira (-300) vs Sam Alvey (+240) Gabe’s Thoughts: I lean with Ferreira to get his hand raised here but think he is being over-valued at his current betting price of -300. There is a decent chance that he could be knocked out by Alvey, and losing a decision is not unlikely, either. That said, if the fight hits the judges’ scorecards, I think the Brazilian will take the nod more often than not, considering he is generally the more active fighter of the two. I don’t like Ferreira’s chances of finishing Alvey, which means I could only see him winning by decision, and asking -300 for that is too much. If anything, a play on Ferreira by Decision would be worth a look, if the odds are good enough, or possibly Alvey by T/KO, but personally, I think we are best off staying away from this one. Gabe’s Call: Ferreira by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Bantamweight bout: Frankie Saenz (+285) vs Iuri Alcantara (-375) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Alcantara wins this fight and extends his winning streak to four, but I don’t think he is worth playing at his current betting price of -375. He is the rightful favorite, but I don’t feel comfortable including him in a parlay at that price. If this was a five round fight, I would actually make a play on Saenz, as I think he could potentially win three out of five rounds against the Brazilian. However, in a three rounder, I think Alcantara will win at least two out of three rounds more often than not, if not earn a finish. I think this is his fight to lose, but think it is one he could very well lose. I would not be surprised to see Saenz steal the second and third rounds and pull off a big upset. If the public keeps coming in heavy on Alcantara, Saenz might end up being worth a look, however at the current odds, I think this scrap is one best left avoided. Gabe’s Call: Alcantara by Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-29) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Featherweight bout: Mike de la Torre (+160) vs Tiago Trator (-195) Gabe’s Thoughts: The Brazilian should get the win here, but I think there are currently too many question marks surrounding both fighters for me to play him at his current price of -195. If the odds were tighter, I would likely side with him for a wager, as I do think he will get the better of de la Torre in his 145-pound debut. It will be interesting to see how fares in the featherweight division; he is dropping down from 155-pounds, while de la Torre is going up from 135-pounds, after competing at 155-pounds in his promotional debut. I am tempted to make a play on the Brazilian in this match-up, and wish the odds were better so I could justify doing so; I may very well end up kicking myself for this, but I’m skipping this one. Gabe’s Call: Trator by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Bantamweight bout: Cody Gibson (-260) vs Douglas Silva (+200) Gabe’s Thoughts: I lean with Gibson getting his hand raised in this match-up but I don’t count the Brazilian out. If the public comes in on Gibson, I could see value in Silva as a live dog. However, at current betting odds, I don’t see value either way, so I think this is a fight to avoid at the sportsbooks on Sunday night. Gabe’s Call: Gibson by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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