Gabe Killian’s Prop Plays for UFC 183

Nick Diaz 3UFC 183 Date: January 31, 2015 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Las Vegas this tonight (Jan. 31st, 2015) with 12 scheduled bouts, including a five-fight main card that will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm ET. Preliminary action will precede it on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET and UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in wagering on these proposition plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. My prop plays for UFC 183 are: Middleweight bout: Anderson Silva (-500) vs Nick Diaz (+435) Fight Goes to Decision (+180) 1u to win 1.8u Contrary to popular opinion, I think it’s more likely that these two go at it for all 25 minutes of action to a judges’ decision more often than not. I think the line for this prop should be -150, so I like it for a play at the current underdog price of +180. Lightweight bout: Al Iaquinta (-190) vs Joe Lauzon (+175) Iaquinta -3.5 (+115) 1u to win 1.15u Iaquinta Wins in Round One (+425) .4u to win 1.7u Iaquinta Wins in Round Three (+1250) .4u to win 5u Iaquinta by Submission (+1428) .2u to win 2.85u I think this fight is going to be all Al Iaquinta. For a full write-up on this 155-pound scrap, check out my fight article for the bout. Women’s Bantamweight bout: Miesha Tate (+165) vs Sara McMann (-175) McMann -3.5 (+205) 1u to win 2.05u McMann by Decision (+118) 1u to win 1.18u I think McMann’s strength and wrestling will prove to be too much for Tate to overcome. I see McMann scoring points on the feet and using her takedowns and top control to win all three rounds for a unanimous decision victory in this preliminary card headliner. For a full write up on this women’s 135-pound contest, here is my fight article for the bout. Flyweight bout: Ian McCall (-235) vs John Lineker (+215) McCall by Decision (+121) .5u to win .6u McCall Wins in Round Three (+1350) .2u to win 2.7u McCall -3.5 (+135) .4u to win .54u I think McCall is going to be too quick on the feet for Lineker. I see him outpointing him there, and using his superior wrestling to take him down and score some ground and pound. I could see him pulling off a submission finish, most likely late in the fight, but more often than not, I think he gets his hand raised via decision. For a full write-up on this flyweight affair, check out my fight article for the scrap. Middleweight bout: Rafael Natal (-125) vs Tom Watson (+115) Watson Inside the Distance (+345) 1u to win 3.45u Watson by Submission (+2275) .2u to win 4.55u Watson +3.5 (-215) 2.15u to win 1u Watson Wins in Round One (+650) .4u to win 2.6u Watson Wins in Round Three (+1500) 0.2u to win 3u I think there is a very good chance Watson ends this fight inside the distance, almost certainly by knockout. While he is at a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu disadvantage against Natal, I think it’s possible he could hurt Natal and catch the Brazilian in a guillotine choke as he’s attempting a desperate takedown. At +2275, I think that’s worth a stab. Even if this fight manages to hit the judges’ scorecards, I think Watson will take the nod. If it doesn’t go his way, I think it will be a closely contested decision, in which case the +3.5 prop will still cash. To conclude, I think the most likely outcome to this match-up is Watson winning via T/KO and I see it happening either early in the fight or late. Middleweight bout: Andy Enz (-150) vs Thiago Santos (-160) Santos by Decision (+160) .5u to win .8u Simply put, I think this is the most likely outcome to this match-up. For a full write-up on this 185-pound contest, look for my fight article on the bout. Other: Over 5.5 Fights Go the Distance (-182) .91u to win .5u Over 6.5 Fights Go the Distance (+130) 0.5u to win .65u Not Lauzon by Decision (-1300) parlayed with Not Boetsch by Decision (-1360), Not Tate in Round One (-2300), Not Natal in Round Two (-1500), Not Lineker in Round Two (-2525) and Not Enz Inside the Distance (-737) at -193 for 1.93u to win 1u Iaquinta -3.5 (+115) parlayed with McMann by Decision (+118), McCall by Decision (+121) and Santos by Decision (+160) at +2593 for .25u to win 6.48u

Written by Gabe Killian

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