UFC 183 Fights to Avoid Betting

UFC 183 727713-thiago_alvesDate: January 31, 2015 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Las Vegas this Saturday night (Jan. 31st, 2015) with 12 scheduled bouts, including a five-fight main card that will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm ET. Preliminary action will precede it on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET and UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in betting on this fight card, the lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My fights to AVOID betting for UFC 183 are: Welterweight bout: Jordan Mein (-140) vs Thiago Alves (+120) Gabe’s Thoughts: To me, this is really a fight that “AVOID” written all over. I think there are way too many question marks surrounding both fighters heading into this match-up, and this fight should very well answer them. They’re both talented on the feet, which is where I expect the entirety of this bout to take place. If I had to guess, I’d say it plays out for all three rounds of action for a judges’ decision, where it could be anybody’s fight. That said, no outcome here would surprise me. Even though I am very familiar with both of these welterweights and have been following their careers for years, this particular match-up I have no real feel for and was unsuccessful in properly breaking down and finding a highly likely outcome for. A couple of days ago, the betting odds for this scrap were at a coin-flip, but now Mein is a small favorite, with Alves being the slight underdog. If I felt like gambling, I would go with the dog for value, as I think this is likely to be a close one that could go either way. However, I think the wisest move is to stay away from this one, and purely enjoy it as a fight fan, as it is a match-up between two elite 170-pound athletes, and is a fight that should really deliver. Gabe’s Call: Alves by KO (punch, 0:16 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Middleweight bout: Derek Brunson (-550) vs Ed Herman (+425) Gabe’s Thoughts: I had Brunson in a parlay when he and Herman were first scheduled to meet at UFC on FOX 15 nearly a couple of months ago. The fight never happened because Brunson had come down with a case of food poisoning and was rescheduled for this card. I thought Brunson was worthy of including in a parlay at UFC on FOX 13 because his line was -330, however he is -550 this time around and I no longer see any value in him to even consider him for a parlay. I do see a tiny bit of value in Herman, but I don’t think it is worth the gamble. All in all, I think this is one scrap worth staying away from, especially if you’re thinking about putting your money behind Brunson. I think he grinds Herman out for a decision win here, but I cannot justify a bet on him at -550. I think this is a “dog or pass” situation I have found myself in, and I am feeling good about opting to pass. Gabe’s Call: Brunson by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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