The opening main card bout at UFC 183 is a three-round welterweight bout between Jordan Mein and Thiago Alves. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Mein is a -140 favorite (bet $140 to win $100) while Alves is a +120 underdog (bet $100 to win $120). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Mein at -145 and Alves at +105, and overall he public is backing Mein in this one. This is a very close fight to call but I lean towards Mein. Here’s why. Mein (29-9) is 3-1 in the UFC with wins over Mike Pyle, Hernani Perpetuo and Dan Miller and a loss to Matt Brown. The 25-year-old Canadian is an extremely dangerous fighter on the feet and overall has 16 career wins by knockout. He is also dangerous on the ground and has seven career submission victories, although he doesn’t have great wrestling. For someone so young, Mein has a ton of experience and has been in there with some of the best in the world. However, he’s taken a ton of punishment in his fights and overall has been knocked out twice. He’s also been submitted four times. But while he does have defensive flaws, his striking is extremely dangerous. He is coming off of a 72-second knockout win over Pyle, the best win of his career to date, and with a few more victories Mein could get in the title picture. He has an interesting matchup here against a fellow striker in Alves, and he’ll have to be careful to not take too much damage in the fight, but if he can keep this one standing he absolutely can outstrike Alves and get the biggest win of his career. Alves (20-9) is a former UFC welterweight title challenge but injuries and long layoffs have stalled out his career. The 31-year-old Brazilian is 12-6 overall in the UFC with wins over the likes of Seth Baczynski, Josh Koscheck and John Howard, among others. Alves is a muay Thai striker and has some of the best kicks in the entire division. He lands absolutely brutal leg kicks in his fights and just watch his last bout against Baczynski to see how dangerous he is with them. He isn’t as athletic as he used to be, but he’s a guy who can land a flying knee and knock his opponents out so you know he’s dangerous anywhere the fight takes place He has 11 career T/KO wins and definitely has the ability to knock out anyone in the division. He doesn’t have much in the way of a ground game (two carer T/KO wins) and his wrestling isn’t great, but he’s so dangerous standing that he doesn’t need to try to take his opponents down to the mat. In this fight against Mein ,Alves will look to keep it standing and outstrike his opponent, but being the older fighter and being at a reach disadvantage, it won’t be easy to do, and that’s why he’s the dog in this one. This is a fight that I see taking place primarily on the feet were Alves is a better technical striker, but where Mein has more power. A few years ago I would have picked Alves to leg kick his way to a win, but with all of his injuries and long layoffs it’s hard to trust him anymore. Mein comes into this fight with a six-year age advantage as well as a five-inch reach advantage. He is also taller. It wouldn’t surprise me if he lost, but I think Mein can have success in the striking in this one and possibly even knock Alves out. Since these two have trained with each other in the past at American Top Team I lean more towards Mein picking up a decision here because I think they will show each other a lot of respect, but regardless of method I think Mein holds several key advantages in this one and I have to pick him. As for a bet, for me it’s too close to call so I’ll pass, but I think it’s a Mein-or-pass situation.
