UFC Fight Night 59 Fights to Avoid Betting

004_Patrick_Holohan_gallery_post.0.0UFC Fight Night 59 Date: January 18, 2015 Arena: TD Garden City: Boston, MA The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Boston tomorrow night (Jan. 18, 2015) with UFC Fight Night 59 and will be featuring 12 bouts, including a four-fight main card that will be live on FOX Sports 1 at 10pm ET, with a six-fight preliminary card that will precede it on the same channel at 7pm ET, and a pair of scraps preceding that on UFC Fight Pass at 6pm ET. If interested in betting on this fight card, the lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My fights to AVOID betting for UFC Fight Night 59 in Boston are: Flyweight bout: Patrick Holohan (-275) vs Shane Howell (+250) Gabe’s Thoughts: While I lean with Holohan to get his hand raised in this match-up, I think he is being over valued at the current line of -275 (bet $275 to win $100). To be honest, I do see some value in Howell at his current betting price of +250 (bet $100 to win $250), and I was eyeing it for a play, but I could not come around to pulling the trigger on it. I can see him making this a competitive fight and possibly winning a round or two, but I have a feeling that whether if he indeed does edge Holohan and deserve the decision win, the Irishman will still get the nod from the judges at cage-side. The crowd will certainly be on his side, and I think Holohan is one fighter who will likely benefit from any sort of home advantage. “The Hooligan” is 1-1 inside the Octagon, upsetting Josh Sampo in Ireland by first round rear naked choke in his promotional debut, and then dropping a unanimous decision to late notice replacement Chris Kelades in his next and last outing. Howell took on Borg in his promotional debut last Summer, and was made quick work of, losing the bout by rear naked choke submission in the very first round of action. That match-up, combined with his horrid record of 13-8 contributes to the high priced line on Holohan, in my opinion. Despite those, I think Howell is a decent fighter who currently has many question marks surrounding him, as does Holohan, for that matter, so I find it best to stay away from this one at the sportsbooks, and just sit back, enjoy, and more importantly, learn about these 125 pounders. Gabe’s Call: Holohan by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Featherweight bout: Charles Rosa (-135) vs Sean Soriano (+115) Gabe’s Thoughts: Both of these guys are very talented and are solid prospects in the division, though Soriano could be sent packing from the promotion with a loss here, as he is on a two-fight losing streak inside the Octagon. He looked good against Tatsuya Kawajiri in his promotional debut, but lost the bout via rear naked choke in the second round, and then dropped a unanimous decision to Chas Skelly in his next and last outing. Rosa made his promotional debut on short notice back in October, dropping a unanimous decision to Dennis Siver, though earning ‘Fight of the Night’ honors for his efforts. I think this will likely be a closely contested bout, and I lean with the hometown favorite to get the win. Rosa, otherwise known as “The Boston Strangler” will be fighting in his hometown for the first time in his professional mixed martial arts career and is excited for it. I agree with the betting odds, Rosa being a -135 favorite is spot on, so I see no value either way to even consider making a play. The gambler in me wants to make a move on Rosa, but I am going to just sit back and enjoy this one, as I see it being a real contender for the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ honors. Gabe’s Call: Rosa by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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