Gabe Killian’s Plays for Bellator 132

georgi-karakhanyanBellator 132 Date: January 16, 2015 Arena: Pechanga Casino Resort City: Temecula, CA Bellator 132 will be live on Spike TV this Friday night at 9pm ET with a four fight main card, with a six fight preliminary card to precede it on at 7pm ET. If interested in wagering on this card, these and all other lines for this card and other fight cards this weekend will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my plays for Bellator 132… Featherweight title bout: Daniel Straus (+150) vs Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (-180) Gabe’s Thoughts: I was initially going to recommend a value play on Straus at his opening line of +235, but the price quickly dropped and I no longer see value in him, nor do I see any in his opponent, the Bellator 145 pound champion Patricio “Pitbull” Freire. However, despite the previous bout in this rematch ending with a “Pitbull” knockout of Straus, I think these two battle it out for all 25 minutes of action en route to a judges’ decision more often than not. The betting line for the total of Over 4.5 rounds is at -160 (bet $160 to win $100), which I believe carries some value and is worthy of a wager. It’s tough to confidently pick a winner in this match-up, but I do feel somewhat confident that the judges’ will decide the outcome, regardless of whether it’s a close fight or there’s an obvious winner. So not only do I think the Over 4.5 rounds at -160 is the value play to make here, but I also feel it is the safe play. However, I am not going to go as big on it as I normally would like to, because it’s only the first night of three nights of fights and I don’t want to get too carried away. Gabe’s Call: “Pitbull” by Split Decision (47-48, 49-46, 48-47) Gabe’s Recommended Plays: Over 4.5 rounds (-160) 2u to win 1.25u Featherweight bout: Bubba Jenkins (-130) vs Georgi Karakhanyan (+100) Gabe’s Thoughts: If Georgi does not finish him early, I think Jenkins will gas out putting up with him for 10 minutes, and will likely get finished in the third frame. I think there is a very good chance Karakhanyan earns the finish in this bout, either by T/KO or submission, and if it hits the judges’ scorecards, I favor him there, as well. The only way Jenkins wins this fight is if he out-grapples Georgi for a majority of two out of three rounds, and while not an unrealistic scenario, I don’t see it playing out that way tomorrow night. Karakhanyan certainly has the edge on the feet and in the submission game, but Jenkins holds the edge in wrestling, which has been Karakhanyan’s lone weakness in his career. That said, I think he will find success defending takedowns, and I see him implementing his own offensive wrestling, which will lead to his offensive Jiu-Jitsu, which will lead to a submission victory. The Armenian is without a doubt the biggest challenge of Jenkins’ professional mixed martial arts career, and while I think he has a future in the division, I believe Karakhanyan is too much, too soon for him. I think Karakhanyan should be -200 (bet $200 to win $100) in this bout, so I definitely see value in him at his current price of +100 (bet $100 to win $100). If this were a five round fight, I would have made a larger wager, but I still like him to get his hand raised in a three round affair. Gabe’s Call: Karakhanyan by Submission (head and arm choke, 3:53 round 3) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Georgi Karakhanyan (+100) 3.5u to win 3.5u

Written by Gabe Killian

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