Snapstats: Who is the Most Accurate Striker at UFC Stockholm?

It’s not exactly a team of snipers headed to Stockholm this weekend (Jan. 24, 2015). Sure, some guys hit hard, and there are plenty of wrestlers across the main card, but the majority of them are below average in the key metric of power head striking accuracy. Could this affect some matchups this weekend? It might. Let’s see how they all stack up.

 Most Accurate Striker at UFC Stockholm

For more on these and other MMA performance metrics, get the book “Fightnomics” at Amazon.

  The Good Only two fighters on the main card come in above average here, Swede Akira Corassani, and main event challenger Anthony Johnson. Corassani’s striking may be underrated, especially given that he has back-to-back losses to some of the division’s best. He’ll finally be a favorite against Sam Sicilia here (albeit just barely) and this metric is one reason why there’s support for that. Rumble Johnson’s stats could be inflated by his fights in smaller weight classes, but there’s no denying that he is ferocious striker. He has the highest Knockdown Rate on the main card, and we could be in for a very interesting striking duel with Alexander Gustafsson, which may be a fitting scenario for the title-eliminator fight for the next Jon Jones defense. Middle of the Pack It’s lonely there in the middle, but hometown hero Alexander Gustafsson will have 30,000+ of his closest friends to help him out this weekend. And that could actually play a factor. He’s not as accurate as Johnson, there’s a negligible reach differential, and Gustafsson has significantly worse head strike defense. But Gustafsson does have a lot of volume, and that’s where the vocal crowd support could really help him win otherwise close rounds. Based on the current odds, Gustafsson appears to be well-favored over Johnson, but at least out of the gates when both fighters are fresh, Johnson should be able to hang exchanging leather with Gustafsson.   The Bad and the Ugly And now for the bulk of the main card competitors. Mousasi, with a long history in striking comes in just barely below average, but he’ll still have a precision advantage over opponent Dan Henderson. Mousasi especially likes to use his jab, which he does so with extremely high accuracy. But in terms of power striking, Henderson is clearly the more powerful of the two, despite having poor accuracy. However, who you’re using a weapon nicknamed the H-bomb, you don’t have to land it very often. Then there’s Ryan Bader, who while not a technical striker, certainly packs a lot of power. But he’s facing Phil Davis who has never effectively used his standup power striking to his advantage. While standing both men have good head strike avoidance, despite lower accuracy. There could be a lot of feeling out and circling to start this fight, and then will come the more important question of whether either fighter can get the other to the ground. And Sam Sicilia as mentioned before, will have an uphill battle against the more technical and precise Corassani. Though it’s important to note that Sicilia swings for the fences, throwing 80% of his standing head strikes with power, and only 20% jabs. And Corassani’s chin rating is below average, so he’ll need that good technical boxing to avoid getting planted by the slugging Sicilia.    “Fightnomics” the book is now available on Amazon! Follow along on Twitter for the latest UFC stats and MMA analysis, or on Facebook if you prefer.

Written by Reed Kuhn

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