Gabe Killian’s Live Dogs for UFC 182

00Paul FelderUFC 182 Date: January 3, 2015 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Pay Per View this Saturday night (Jan. 3, 2015) with UFC 182, and the main card will be live at 10pm ET, with preliminary action preceding it at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1 and before that, at 7pm ET on UFC Fight Pass. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My live dogs for UFC 182 are: Lightweight bout: Danny Castillo (-240) vs Paul Felder (+200) Gabe’s Thoughts: Felder is coming off a split decision victory over Jason Saggo in his promotional debut and looking to go 2-0 inside the Octagon in this bout against Castillo. Meanwhile, the Team Alpha Male fighter is looking to bounce back into the win column following a split decision loss to Tony Ferguson, so this makes it a rare “winner vs loser” match-up, and I think it is going to be a closely contested one. I lean with Castillo picking up a judges’ decision due to time spent in top position on the mat. I believe this fight will come down to whether Felder’s takedown defense will be able to hold up for at least two out of three rounds for him to outpoint Castillo on the judges’ scorecards. That said, I could also see “The Irish Dragon” earning a stoppage over the Team Alpha Male product, but I think more often than not this one will see its way all the way to the judges’ scorecards, where I think Castillo will have done enough to pick up the nod. However, I do not agree with him being a -240 favorite over Felder, as I think Felder has a legitimate chance at either edging a decision or scoring a finish. I think “The Irish Dragon” should be a +140 underdog in this contest, so I’ll make a small value play on him at current 2-to-1 dog odds. Gabe’s Call: Castillo by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Paul Felder (+200) 1.5u to win 3u Bantamweight bout: Cody Garbrandt (+175) vs Marcus Brimage (-210) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think the undefeated Garbrandt is a solid prospect at 135 pounds and has a future in the UFC’s bantamweight division. Heading into his Octagon debut faces the biggest challenge of his five-fight professional mixed martial arts career in the form of Marcus Brimage, who recently bounced back from a split decision loss to Russell Doane with a headkick knockout of Jumabieke Tuerxune. I think this bout will be closely contested on the feet and that Garbrandt’s boxing will be the difference maker after three rounds of action when the judges have their say. I am a fan of Brimage’s and believe he also has a future in this division, however I don’t agree with him being such a big favorite in this match-up. In fact, I think this fight is a coin flip and lean with “No Love” to get his hand raised due to his wrestling advantage. At the current underdog price of +175, I like Garbrandt to stay undefeated this Saturday night in Las Vegas. Gabe’s Call: Garbrandt by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Cody Garbrandt (+175) 2u to win 3.5u Heavyweight bout: Jared Cannonier (+190) vs Shawn Jordan (-230) Gabe’s Thoughts: Simply put, I think Cannonier has a better chance of ending this fight on the feet, though should it hit the mat, Jordan will have the submission edge there. If this heavyweight affair manages to go all three rounds, I think it could go either way, but I think Cannonier is more likely to earn a stoppage. I don’t agree with the current betting lines, as I think they should be closer to a coin-flip, with Cannonier being a slight favorite. At +190, I do believe the undefeated Cannonier is a very live dog heading into his Octagon debut and worthy of a wager. Gabe’s Call: Cannonier by T/KO (punches, 0:28 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Jared Cannonier (+190) 2.5u to win 4.75u

Written by Gabe Killian

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