UFC on FOX 5 Opening Odds: Welterweights Mike Swick (-125) vs. Matt Brown (-105)

Matt BrownUFC on FOX 5: December 8, 2012 Seattle, Washington UFC Welterweight Contender Mike Swick Profile: When Mike Swick (15-4) stepped inside the Octagon at UFC on FOX 4, it was nearly 30 months since his last fight when a darce choke caused him to tap out to Paulo Thiago at UFC 109. Misdiagnosed with a stomach disease, the 33-year-old Swick had been unable to keep on any mass whatsoever, and after a long rehabilitation, this original cast member of The Ultimate Fighter made his succesful return to the UFC at welterweight with an impressive knockout of DaMarques Johnson. Known for his extremely aggressive style and his back-to-back 20-second knockouts that earned him the nickname “Quick” Swick, he now hopes to keep his comeback rolling against Matt Brown at UFC on FOX 5. UFC Welterweight Contender Matt Brown Profile: Don’t let his record fool you, aside from his tendency to get submitted, Matt Brown (15-11) is as tough as they come. Brown is one of those guys who will always make it a fight and never make himself an easy win for anyone. He has strong stand-up, an iron chin (he’s never been knocked out) and is savvy outside of his holes in his ground game. Many have wondered why the UFC has kept him on the roster as long as they have with Brown touting such a middlesome record, but his latest three-fight winning streak has silenced some of the critics. His upcoming fight with Swick will be a safe bet for winning one of the nightly bonuses. Opening UFC on FOX 5 Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made Swick a small -125 favorite (bet $125 to win $100) while Brown opened as a -105 underdog  according to the MMA odds. Nearly half of Swick’s wins have come via KO or TKO, and the fact that Brown has never been knocked out makes this a very intriguing matchup. Meanwhile, Brown has scored TKOs in two of his last three fights during his winning streak, both in the second round. Swick has only been knocked out once in his career, and that came against Chris Leben for the WEC middleweight championship nearly nine years ago. Since then, Swick is 10-3 with two of the losses coming by unanimous decision. While both of these fighters figure to put on a show, the two have seen just six of their 30 combined wins go to the judges. That means MMA bettors can expect to see a spirited slugfest early on with Swick’s best stoppage opportunity likely coming as a result of a successful submission attempt based on past history. Brown has been submitted in nine of his 11 losses, including each of his last four. Swick’s last two submission wins have resulted from guillotine chokes, which also happens to be the way Brown has suffered his previous two losses.

Written by MMA OddsBreaker

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