UFC 182 Fights to Avoid Betting

Brad Tavares 2UFC 182 Date: January 3, 2015 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Pay Per View this Saturday night (Jan 3, 2015) with UFC 182, and the main card will be live at 10pm ET, with preliminary action preceding it at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1 and before that, at 7pm ET on UFC Fight Pass. If interested in betting on this fight card, the lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My fights to AVOID betting for UFC 182 are: Middleweight bout: Brad Tavares (+115) vs Nate Marquardt (-135) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Marquardt will edge Tavares on the feet and get the better of him on the mat, should the fight go there. Though Tavares has excellent takedown defense, I think there is a decent chance Marquardt will manage to get him down via a trip takedown or something at some point and win a round just by being in top position. I think both fighters are capable of knocking each other out, but I see Marquardt as being the only one who could realistically get his hand raised after securing a submission. I think there are too many very realistic and possible outcomes to this 185 pound scrap and don’t see value on either fighter at the current betting lines. I would have either liked Tavares at +200 or better, or Marquardt at +120 or better, so unless seriously heavy action comes in one way or the other, this one is going to be best served for pure enjoyment, with no action on the line. Gabe’s Call: Marquardt by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Flyweight bout: Kyoji Horiguchi (-750) vs Louis Gaudinot (+525) Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree with Horiguchi being the heavy favorite in this bout, and believe he will get his hand raised either by finish or decision. I favor him to earn the finish, however Gaudinot is very tough, so I would not be surprised to see him last the full 15 minutes with the Japanese fighter. Though I think Horiguchi deserves to be a big favorite here, I do not agree with his current betting line of -750. I think he should be a -400 favorite in this match-up, so that would suggest that I think there is value in Gaudinot at +525. There may be some value there, but it is not nearly enough for me to make a play, as I think his only chance at victory as by submission. If I were going to wager on this bout and wanted to back Gaudinot, I would take him by Submission (line yet to be released, my guess is +1000) or even possibly Inside the Distance at the current betting price of +705. That said, I personally do not think it is worth it to gamble on this one, as it will truly be more of a gamble than a thoughtful play. Gabe’s Call: Horiguchi by T/KO (strikes, 3:44 round 3) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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