Gabe Killian’s Plays for UFC Fight Night 58’s Fight Pass Prelims

MMA: UFC on FOX 8-Castillo-MeansUFC Fight Night 58 Date: December 20, 2014 Arena: Jose Correa Arena City: Barueri, Brazil The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Brazil this Saturday night (Dec. 20, 2014) with UFC Fight Night 58 and will be featuring 12 bouts, including a six-fight main card that will be live on FOX Sports 1 at 10pm ET, with a four-fight preliminary card that will precede it on the same channel at 8pm ET, and a pair of scraps preceding that on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My plays for the UFC Fight Night 58 Fight Pass Prelims are: Welterweight bout: Marcio “Lyoto” Alexandre Jr (+190) vs Tim “Dirty Bird” Means (-250) Gabe’s Thoughts: I expect “Lyoto” to have made improvements both in skill and cardio heading into this match-up, which I think will be a closely contested one that take place on the feet. Cardio has been his main weakness, as all of his fights prior to his UFC debut had not made it out of the first round. In the UFC, he won’t be able to finish every fight in the first round and realizing that, he should show improvements against Means. He is dedicated to the sport, so I believe he works on improving his weaknesses. If he failed to do that, then Means will be able to stop him in the third round, as he is the fighter with superior cardio. Assuming “Lyoto” has the gas tank to go three rounds without drastically fading, then I think this fight will be close one to call after 15 minutes of action when it hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision. Rounds could be very close and go to Alexandre Jr, ultimately giving him the hometown nod. He is a fighter with potential and I think he will have a size advantage in this bout, as he was fighting at middleweight in his last bout and his opponent Means used to compete in the lightweight division. If the lines were closer, I would recommend staying away from this one, but at current odds, I think there is some value to be had with the Brazilian underdog. Gabe’s Call: “Lyoto” by Split Decision (29-28, 27-30, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Marcio Alexandre Jr (+190) 1u to win 1.9u Light Heavyweight bout: Jake Collier (-180) vs Vitor “Lex Luthor” Miranda (+150) Gabe’s Thoughts: Simply put, Collier is the superior mixed martial artist, not to mention much younger fighter heading into this 205 pound contest. He recently secured the RFA light heavyweight title with a first round rear naked choke submission win over Gabriel Checco and earned himself a contract with the big show. He will be making his debut against the TUF Brazil 3 veteran Miranda, who performed at heavyweight on the reality television series. I think Collier will first hurt Miranda on the feet, then take the fight to the mat, where I think he will ultimately sink in a choke to earn the tap for his first Octagon victory. I think Collier should be a -400 favorite heading into this contest, so I see plenty of value in him at the current betting price of -185 to make a move on him. Gabe’s Call: Collier by Submission (rear naked choke, 4:05 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Jake Collier (-180) 5.4u to win 3u

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Gabe Killian’s Dive into the UFC Fight Night 58 FS1 Prelims

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