Gabe Killian’s Live Dogs for the TUF 20 Finale

carla-esparzaTUF 20 Finale Date: December 12, 2014 Arena: The Pearl at Palms Casino Resort City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighter Season 20 Finale will be live from Las Vegas this tomorrow night (Dec. 12, 2014) with 11 scheduled bouts, and the action will be live on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on these proposition plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My live dogs for the TUF 20 Finale are: Women’s Strawweight title bout: Carla Esparza (+140) vs Rose Namajunas Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Esparza is a live dog here and think she could use her superior wrestling and solid submission defense to edge out three out of five rounds en route to picking up either a unanimous or split decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I see value in Esparza here at +140, but rather than recommending a play on her as my live dog, I am going to recommend the Over 4.5 rounds total, which is also at +140. The reason for this is because if this fight does in fact go the distance and Esparza does win, the Over 4.5 rounds total will also cash, but if the nod from the judges’ ends up going to Namajunas, then we still end up profitable on the fight. I think Esparza should be -160, not +140, and I don’t think the Over 4.5 rounds should be +140, either. I think it should be -230, so I see is more value there than I do with taking Esparza straight up. Gabe’s Call: Carla Esparza by Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 4.5 rounds (+140) 2.25u to win 3.15u Women’s Strawweight bout: Felice Herrig (-350) vs Lisa Ellis (+290) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this fight is a lot closer than the betting odds currently suggest, and while I favor Herrig to get her hand raised, I think there is enough value with Ellis at near 3-to-1 underdog odds to pull the trigger on a gamble. I expect this bout to be closely contested, and if Ellis shows up completely focused and motivated, unlike she was in the TUF house, then I think she can absolutely walk away with it. I don’t know where she is at mentally, but I know she has the skill-set to be competitive with Herrig and possibly get the better of her. I think the UFC matched Herrig up with Ellis because they want to give Herrig a win, as she is one of the more famous fighters in women’s mixed martial arts, but I think Ellis could end up surprising here. If the odds were closer, I would stay away from this one, but I can’t justify Ellis being such a big underdog in this fight, so I have to make the move. Gabe’s Call: Felice Herrig by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Lisa Ellis (+290) 1u to win 2.9u

Written by Gabe Killian

Leave a Reply

TUF 20 Finale Fight Breakdown: Joanne Calderwood vs. Seo Hee Ham

The Parting Shot Podcast TUF 20 Finale/UFC on FOX 13 Kountermove $100 FREEROLL