MMA Odds and Ends for Wednesday: UFC on FOX 13 Main Card Sneak Peek

Gabriel Gonzaga MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas recently released the full main card betting odds for UFC on FOX 13 at Several Bookmakers. Here’s a betting preview of the evening’s four-fight main card. Junior dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic The main event of UFC on FOX 13 pits the former champ Junior dos Santos against rising contender Stipe Miocic in a heavyweight matchup. JDS opened at -270, Miocic +190. After early betting action on the favorite, JDS is -400 and Miocic is +325. JDS is the clear favorite in this fight but at the current lines, I think this is a dog-or-pass situation. Miocic is an excellent heavyweight himself and JDS hasn’t fought in well over a year and is coming off of numerous injuries. I have to pick JDS because I think he’s the better fighter, but I would not touch him here, and I’m thinking about making a value play on Miocic. Rafael dos Anjos vs. Nate Diaz The co-main event features surging lightweight Rafael dos Anjos taking on Nate Diaz. RDA opened at -190 with Diaz at +150, and now RDA is -250 while Diaz is +190. RDA deserves to be the favorite but I feel like the betting public may be sleeping on Diaz here. I know he hasn’t fought in a year, and I know his wrestling is weak, but he is the better volume striker and he has excellent BJJ as well. This fight is closer than the betting public is making it out to be. I will likely be picking RDA, but Diaz is absolutely a live dog. Alistair Overeem vs. Stefan Struve A heavyweight bout sees Alistair Overeem taking on Stefan Struve in what should be an exciting fight. Overeem opened at -245 with Struve at +175. Now Reem is -325 while Struve is +250. Based on talent and skillset, Reem should win this fight in the first round, but it’s very hard to back him considering his weak chin. Then again, Struve also has a weak chin. This fight just screams pass to me, and I’m surprised so many people are confident Reem gets the job done. I’ll pick Overeem, but would I bet this fight at the current lines? Not a chance. Matt Mitrione vs. Gabriel Gonzaga And finally, the opening main card bout features heavyweights Matt Mitrione and Gabriel Gonzaga. Mitrione opened at -150 with Gonzaga at +110, and now Mitrione is -135 with Gonzaga at +105. I actually really like Mitrione in this matchup, especially with the line dropping even lower than the opener. The threat of Gonzaga getting a submission (or a knockout) is always possible, but based on what I have seen from both fighters lately, I expect Mitrione to really light Gonzaga up with strikes early in this one and score a knockout. The early line movement is perplexing to me, as I don’t see this being a close fight at all.

Written by Adam Martin.

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