UFC 181 Fights to Avoid Betting

todd-duffeeUFC 181 Date: December 6, 2014 Arena: Mandalay Bay Events Center City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship will be live from Las Vegas this Saturday night with UFC 181, which will be headlined by a pair of title fights. The main card will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm ET, with preliminary action preceding it on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET and UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in betting on this fight card, the lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My fights to AVOID betting for UFC 181 are: Heavyweight bout: Anthony Hamilton (+265) vs Todd Duffee (-325) Gabe’s Thoughts: First and foremost, this is a heavyweight fight, which in most cases are not good to bet on, and I think this one falls under “most cases”. Duffee is coming off an extended injury layoff and I don’t think he should not be trusted at such heavy juiced odds. Both of these big boys are chinny, so like most with heavyweight fights, it could end at either moment with either fighter dropping to the canvas. That does not mean I think there is value with Hamilton, because I do believe Duffee is the better, stronger fighter and should be able to walk away with the win; if not via T/KO, then by way of decision after three rounds of action. I don’t think it makes sense to bet on this fight, as there are serious red flags surrounding it, so it definitely has to be one to skip at the sportsbooks on Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: Duffee by KO (punches, 0:23 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Featherweight bout: Alex White (-135) vs Clay Collard (+115) Gabe’s Thoughts: White looked impressive in his promotional debut, defeating Strikeforce import Estevan Payan via TKO in the very first round of action, though it is worth noting that the veteran was getting the better of White on the feet until getting caught. What was an impressive debut no longer looks as impressive, considering how poorly he performed in his next outing against Lucas Martins, suffering a third round TKO, and ultimately tasting defeat for the first time in his professional mixed martial arts career. But more importantly, considering the fact that Payan went into that fight coming off a TKO loss, and after losing to White and getting cut from the promotion, he went on to suffer another first round TKO in Bellator. Collard made his Octagon debut against Max Holloway as a short notice injury replacement and put up a heck of a fight, taking the Hawaiian all the way into the third round, where he unfortunately ended up losing via TKO, as the short notice did not give him enough time to prepare for the cardio machine that is Max Holloway. There is no doubting that both of these 145 pounders are tough, but do they belong in the UFC? There are a lot of question marks surrounding them both heading into this contest, and that is the main one for me. I don’t think there is any way I could confidently make any sort of bet on this fight. I had my eye on the Over 1.5 rounds at -180 for a moment, but ultimately decided it’s best to skip this one all-together. Collard was at +130 earlier and I thought if he became +160 or better, he might be worth a small value play, as I see this featherweight scrap as being more or less of a coin-flip. However, action came in the other way and tightened up the lines, so it is a definite no-go. Gabe’s Call: Collard by Majority Decision (29-28, 29-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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