UFC Fight Night 57 Fights to Avoid Betting

joshua-copelandUFC Fight Night 57 Date: November 22, 2014 Arena: Frank Erwin Center City: Austin, TX The Ultimate Fighting Championship will be live from Austin, TX this Saturday night with UFC Fight Night 57. The event will feature a 12-fight card, including a six-fight main card that will be headlined by a featherweight tilt between Frankie Edgar and Cub Swanson. Main card action gets going at 10pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with the preliminary card preceding it on the same channel at 8pm ET, and two fights getting the night going on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in betting on this fight card, the lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My fights to AVOID betting for UFC Fight Night 57 in Austin are: Heavyweight bout: Josh Copeland (+175) vs Ruslan Magomedov (-210) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think the betting odds for this match-up should be closer than they currently are, however I do lean with Magomedov to pick up the win, ultimately handing Copeland his first loss as a professional mixed martial artist. Copeland is the RFA heavyweight champion making his UFC debut against Magomedov, who is already 1-0 in the UFC and is his stiffest competition to date. Both heavyweights hit hard and are capable of finishing this fight at any moment, even considering that they are both durable and have good recovery. That said, I lean with the superior technical striker in Magomedov to get the better of Copeland in this bout, though at the current odds, I cannot back him for a play. I had my eye on Copeland for a value play as a live dog, but decided to pass. Perhaps if he had climbed to +200, I would have pulled the trigger. If he fails to put Magomedov away, I feel the Russian’s Muay Thai will be too much for him to keep up with on the feet, ultimately losing on points, if not getting caught with a head or body kick and getting finished. At these odds, I think this is one heavyweight fight that is best staying away from, as I don’t think there is any real value either way. Gabe’s Call: Magomedov by KO (head-kick, 1:23 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Lightweight bout: James Vick (-220) vs Nick Hein (+180) Gabe’s Thoughts: Simply put, I see this as being a closely contested bout in the UFC’s 155 pound division. I considered a live dog play on Hein here, as I feel like this is a “dog or pass” situation, but ultimately I decided it has to be a pass. Like with Copeland, perhaps at +200 I would have pulled the trigger, but the current odds do not offer enough value to make it worth the risk. I think Vick’s reach advantage will indeed benefit him in this fight, where I see him winning a very closely contested decision on the judges’ scorecards. Contrary to popular opinion, I do not think he will have an easy time beating Hein. I expect Hein to be a very game opponent and will not be at all surprised to see him as the fighter who gets his hand raised at the end of this scrap. This should be a close fight, but at these odds, I think it is one fight to stay away from. Gabe’s Call: Vick by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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