UFC Fight Night 55 Fights to Avoid Betting

Marcus BrimageUFC Fight Night 55 Date: November 7, 2014 Arena: Allphones Arena City: Sydney, Australia The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back in Australia this Friday night with UFC Fight Night 55, and the entire event will be live on UFC Fight Pass; with the main card kicking off at 10pm ET and preliminary action getting going at 7:30pm ET. If interested in betting on this fight card, the lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My bets to AVOID for UFC Fight Night 55 in Australia are: Lightweight bout: Jake Matthews (-400) vs Wagner Rocha (+325) Gabe’s Thoughts: Matthews is certainly a fighter with a lot of potential, especially considering the fact that he is very young at only 20 years of age. Australia is not exactly a hot bed for elite mixed martial artists, as I cannot name one native of the country who is truly great. That being said, I believe Matthews could grow to become the first truly great fighter from Australia if he continues to improve at the rate he has been. Needless to say, I think “The Celtic Kid” is the superior mixed martial artist in this match-up against the returning Brazilian, Wagner Rocha. However, I don’t believe he should be a 4-to-1 favorite over the tested and proven veteran. I think the chances of Rocha catching Matthews in a submission or possibly edging a tight decision are greater than the current price of +325 indicates at the moment, though not good enough to warrant a dog play on the Brazilian. I think there’s a decent chance Matthews can finish this fight via T/KO, and if hits the judges’ scorecards, I favor him to get the nod there more often than not. That said, at these odds, I do not feel comfortable making a play, so I have to move on. Gabe’s Call: Matthews by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Bantamweight bout: Jumabieke Tuerxun (+425) vs Marcus Brimage (-550) Gabe’s Thoughts: Tuerxun looked like a complete can with an inflated record in his promotional debut, losing a decision to Mark Eddiva, but he came out looking far better in his following bout against Leandro Issa. He was getting the better of the Brazilian until the third frame, where he got caught in an armbar and was forced to tap near the end of the round. Both 135-pounders are currently two-fight skids, with Brimage being the victim of a first round Conor McGregor TKO at 145-pounds, and then moving down to bantamweight to drop a very closely contested split decision to the Hawaiian, Russell Doane. This is likely a loser goes home scrap for both fighters who should both be bringing their A games. I think Brimage will be able to get the better of Tuerxun over three rounds of action en route to picking up his first victory at 135-pounds via unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. However, I think the fight will be contested closer than the betting odds currently suggest. I would not be at all surprised to see Tuerxun show up drastically improved since we last saw him. I think Brimage wins this fight, but I don’t think he should be a -550 favorite here. I am not opting to make a dog play on Tuerxun because of all the question marks currently surrounding him. If I felt more confident, I would have made the move, however I am not, so this is another one I gotta bail on. If I had to predict, I’d say they each take a round a piece, and then Brimage takes the third, or possibly earns a TKO stoppage in the third, largely in part due to his superior cardio and heavy volume. Gabe’s Call: Brimage by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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