UFC Fight Night 55 Betting Odds

UFC Fight Night 55UFC fans will have a week off following the fantastic title bout between Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes, and then it’s right back to full speed ahead. The weekend of November 7th and 8th will be a busy one, with a pair of events that technically comprise the organization’s fifth doubleheader of the year. For North American fans the events air on two different days, so it won’t be quite the marathon we’ve had to endure on other days. The proceedings begin at 7:30pm ET on Friday when the first fight from Sydney airs on UFC Fight Pass. That card will end sometime around midnight with UFC Fight Night 56 starting in a normal Saturday evening slot, so the schedule is no different than a UFC/Bellator weekend. As for UFC Fight Night 55, only one line has been released for the card to this point, and that is the main event between Luke Rockhold and Michael Bisping. The line opened with Rockhold a -385 favorite (bet $385 to win $100), and the comeback on Bisping at +265 (bet $100 to win $265) at Several Bookmakers. Money has since come in on the former Strikeforce champ, and he sits at -485 (Bisping +350) a week and a half out from the fight. MMA Oddsmaker Nick Kalikas released the remaining betting lines for UFC Fight Night 55 today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 10pm ET) Luke Rockhold -385 Michael Bisping +265 Ross Pearson -135 Al Iaquinta -105 Clint Hester -150 Robert Whittaker +110 Soa Palelei -165 Walt Harris +125 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 7:30pm ET) Jake Matthews -385 Vagner Rocha +265 Guto Inocente -185 Anthony Perosh +145 Dylan Andrews -130 Sam Alvey -110 Neil Seery -265 Richie Vaculik +185 Chris Clements -125 Vik Grujic -115 Luke Zachrich -215 Dan Kelly +165 Marcus Brimage -380 Jumabieke Tuerxun +260 Aljamain Sterling -425 Frankie Saenz +305 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Al Iaquinta has had some serious struggles in the past in fights he should come through in easily, but those have been against guys who have dangerous submission games. That is not Ross Pearson however. For all the complaining about the Diego Sanchez decision, the fact is that Pearson wasn’t able to put enough distance between himself and the 2014 version of Sanchez to get himself out of that robbery territory. I think Iaquinta is the better overall striker here, the better wrestler, and he won’t have to worry about submissions. Even though this seems like a bout that has the public split, I lean fairly solidly in Iaquinta’s direction. The line in Hester/Whittaker is a strange one. Whittaker usually gets a great deal of respect in his fights, while Hester is often overlooked, but at the same time Whittaker is moving up to 185 for this fight against a massive middleweight. That’s the big tipping point to me in this bout, as despite Whittaker probably being the better technical fighter, he’s going to have huge physical disadvantages in this bout. I think Hester will be able to bully him, either up against the cage or by getting some takedowns, and earn a decision. Soa Palelei was scheduled to face Daniel Omielanczuk in a heavyweight bout, but a broken thumb forced Omielanczuk out. In his stead, the organization will be bringing back Walt Harris, who dropped a pair of UFC bouts to Jared Rosholt and Nikita Krylov in late 2013 and early 2014. He looked solid against DJ Linderman in Titan, and provides an interesting test for Palelei. Aside from the somewhat strange TKO loss to Krylov, Harris has looked durable, and Palelei struggles once he gets out of the first round. Harris is also the better overall striker here. I’m forced to lean Palelei because of the short notice on Harris’ part, but a long line either way here could be worthy of a play. So… the UFC wants Jake Matthews to be one of their Australian building blocks moving forward, don’t they? I can’t say I blame them, as the kid is extremely talented and seems to have quite a high ceiling, I just wish they weren’t making it so obvious. First he gets a grappling deficient Dashon Johnson in his official UFC debut, now he gets Vagner Rocha. Rocha has been out for over a year, and only holds a win over Cody McKenzie from his initial UFC run. He’s certainly a solid grappler, but he’s going to be outmatched physically against Matthews, and I don’t see his experience bridging that gap. The high line is justified. Anthony Perosh’s bout against Ryan Bader is the type that would make a lot of fighters, nevermind 42-year-old fighters, reconsider their livelihood. But ‘The Hippo’ is still at it, and gets an easier test on home soil. Inocente will be the better striker here, but Perosh could very well hold a grappling advantage and may be spurred on by the home crowd for one last victory. If I can get a high enough number on the veteran (in the +250 or higher range) I’d take a shot in a round robin, but realistically I don’t have much interest in betting this bout. It’s almost tempting to bet on Sam Alvey for the simple reason that Dylan Andrews will probably get injured at some point in the match, but Alvey did almost nothing in the first two rounds against Tom Watson. Alvey showed that he is capable of having success at this level in the third round, but it’s so hard to trust him to fight hard for three rounds. I’ll just stay away from this bout, given the inconsistency of each man, but if he manages to stay healthy I lean slightly towards Andrews. In a very clear striker versus grappler matchup, I favor the striker. Neil Seery has proven his takedown defense is good enough to stop the takedowns of wrestlers who aren’t at the top of the division, and Richie Vaculik isn’t a particularly strong wrestler. Seery is the far better striker here, and if his takedown defense holds up for the majority of the fight — which I expect it to — he should win a clear decision, if not find a TKO. The public is probably going to overlook Vaculik a bit too much here though, so I’m not expecting Seery’s line to be something I’m comfortable playing. I wonder how Chris Clements would have done on TUF Nations? My guess is probably about the exact same as Grujic, who lost in the second round of the show. As far as my take on this fight, I expect it to be competitive, but I think Grujic will win more minutes with his ability to get Clements up against the cage and perhaps score a takedown or two. Normally I’m all aboard any chance to fade an Australian fighter not named Jake Matthews, but this is smart matchmaking to give the local guy a fighting chance. I realize that Clements has been finished in all of his losses, but I see Grujic’s path to victory most likely being a decision, which could have a juicy plus number attached. If Dan Kelly is healthy, he has a chance to submit Luke Zachrich, but that’s all it is, a chance. Zachrich looked improved in his last UFC bout, but he’s still far from an elite fighter. If he uses a high-volume striking attack like he did against Vasconcelos, he should be able to keep Kelly on the outside and win a decision. Expecting another consistent performance out of Zachrich may be too much to ask however, so I’m only playing this if he gets close to even money. The fact that Jumabieke Tuerxun was on his way to winning a decision over Leandro Issa is more an indictment of Issa than anything. Tuerxun still doesn’t do much well in the cage. Brimage is miles ahead as a striker, a better wrestler (especially defensively), and I doubt the ground game will come into play here. Brimage should win big here, but we haven’t seen Tuerxun’s chin tested a ton in the UFC, so it’s hard to say whether it’ll be a stoppage or not. I expect Brimage to be one of the most popular parlay legs on the card. In the opening bout of the evening, I fully expect Aljamain Sterling to pick up the win, but Frankie Saenz strikes me as one of those fighters it’s very difficult to look impressive against. He’s tough, he has good cardio, and he is willing to make a fight ugly. He’s not better than Sterling anywhere, but he should hang around and perhaps (wrongly) dampen some of the hype on the prospect.

Written by Brad Taschuk

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