Gabe Killian’s Live Dogs for UFC 179

william-macario-ufc-1681UFC 179 Date: October 25, 2014 Arena: Maracanazinho Gymnasium City: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil The Ultimate Fighting Championship will be live for the first time in the promotions history from an outdoor soccer stadium with UFC 179 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The action-packed fight card comes to us with 11 scheduled bouts, including a five-fight main card that will be live on Pay-Per-View at 10pm ET, with preliminary action getting going at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1 and two fights preceding that on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My live dogs for UFC 179 are: Welterweight bout: Neil Magny (-240) vs William Macario (+200) Gabe’s Thoughts: Magny has been on fire this year, picking up four wins, which would explain why he is the betting favorite in this match-up, especially considering his opponent Macario has been away from action all year. Personally, I think Rio de Janeiro’s own Macario should be a -150 betting favorite heading into this match-up, so at the current underdog price of +200, I really like him for a wager. His cardio has been improving so I don’t think he will gas against Magny, who no doubt is the better conditioned fighter of the two. Getting tired and TKO’d is the only way I could see Magny finishing him, so assuming his cardio is still on the up and up, I don’t see that happening. On the other hand, I could see him putting Magny away on the feet, especially if he gets overconfident standing. If the bout hits the judges’ scorecards, it could be close, but I lean with Macario taking the nod there more often than not, especially in his native hometown. Gabe’s Call: Macario by KO (counter hook, 4:21 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: William Macario (+200) 3.5u to win 7u Lightweight bout: Christos Giagos (+300) vs Gilbert Burns (-360) Gabe’s Thoughts: Popular opinion is that this is a tough spot for Giagos in his promotional debut, and I am inclined to agree. However, I don’t believe he should be a 3-to-1 underdog at the sportsbooks. I think this 155-pound scrap will be a lot closer than those odds suggest, and could even see Giagos scoring a finish or convincingly winning a decision on the judges’ scorecards. Burns is without a doubt a very tough out for him, but I feel like “The Spartan” is being counted out here in a fight he has a solid chance of getting his hand raised in. I lean with the Brazilian to take the nod in Brazil, but as far as a bet goes, I am siding with Giagos for a value play, as I believe he is a very live dog in this match-up. Gabe’s Call: Burns by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Christos Giagos (+300) 1.75u to win 5.25u

Written by Gabe Killian

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