Gabe Killian’s Prop Plays for UFC Fight Night 53 in Sweden

Gunnar NelsonUFC Fight Night 53 Date: October 4, 2014 Arena: Ericsson Globe Arena City: Stockholm, Sweden UFC Fight Night 53 will be live from Stockholm, Sweden later today with an 11-fight card, including a four-fight main card. All fights will be streaming live on UFC Fight Pass, with preliminary action getting going at 12:10pm ET and the main card kicking off at 3pm ET. If interested in wagering on these proposition plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays UFC Fight Night 53 in Sweden are: Welterweight bout: Gunnar Nelson (-360) vs Rick Story (+300) Story by Decision (+525) 1u to win 5.25u I think this could very well be the fight in which Nelson’s decision to fight at 170 pounds instead of 155 pounds costs him, as Story is one of the bigger welterweights in the division. I think as long as Story avoids getting submitted, this is his fight. On the feet, he likes to move forward, whereas Nelson prefers to counter-strike. I think Story could win rounds on the feet based on Octagon control and volume of strikes landed. I could also see him using his wrestling to seal rounds, and contrary to popular opinion, I think there is a very good chance his submission defense will hold up against Nelson, despite the fact that he was quickly dismantled and submitted in his bout against another submission specialist in Damien Maia. I am likely the only person who feels this way, but I think the most likely outcome to this welterweight match-up is Story winning a decision, so at the current price of +525, I do favor the prop for a wager. It is not easy for me to be betting against Nelson, but I feel this is a good play, as is Story straight-up. Nelson is one of my favorite fighters in all of mixed martial arts and Story is a fighter I have bet against in most of his fights, so I am playing the value with this fight, even though it means going against the fighter who I am personally rooting for. Hopefully Nelson finally decides to make the move down to the lightweight division. Welterweight bout: Cathal Pendred (-145) vs Gasan Umalatov (+125) Pendred by Decision (+175) 1u to win 1.75u Fight Goes to Decision (-170) 1.7u to win 1u To put it simply, I think Pended defeating Umalatov via decision is the most likely outcome to this welterweight scrap, so at the current betting line of +175, I do think it is worth a play. Both of these guys are very tough, so I don’t see a finish coming either way; and while I don’t see him ending it, I think this is the Irishman’s fight to lose. Middleweight bout: Krystzstof Jotko (-120) vs Tor Troeng (+100) Jotko by Decision (+175) 1u to win 1.75u I believe Jotko is the superior mixed martial artist of the two heading into this 185 pound scrap and think he has all the tools to defeat the Swede Troeng in enemy territory. Troeng is tough and not easy to put away, so I think the chances of Jotko taking a hard fought decision over him in his backyard are much greater than him earning a finish. After tasting defeat for the first time in his professional mixed martial arts career in his last outing, Jotko is ready to return to the win column, and I think this fight is a good opportunity for him to do so. He may convincingly win every round or he may do just enough to edge it, but I think when it’s all said and done, it will be him getting his hand raised when the scorecards are read. A robbery would not surprise me, as poor decisions seem to occur on nearly every fight card, so hometown cooking aside, Jotko should be able to do enough to deserve the nod more often than not. At the current betting price of +175, I think the prop is worth a wager. Lightweight bout: Mairbek Taisumov (-165) vs Marcin Bandel (+145) Bandel Inside the Distance (+245) 1u to win 2.45u I picked Bandel to upset Taisumov in this match-up and I favor him to do so via submission, inside the distance, keeping that streak alive. Bandel currently rides a very impressive 12 fight winning streak, and he has finished all 12 opponents by tapout. I am expecting this Polish fighter to make a successful promotional debut and extend his winning streak to 13 in a row, and having never been the distance in his professional mixed martial arts career, I think he continues that streak alive, as well, with a finish over Taisumov.

Written by Gabe Killian

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