UFC Fight Night 53 in Sweden: Fights to Avoid Betting

MMA: UFC-TUF Brazil 3 Finale-Maia vs YakovlevUFC Fight Night 53 Date: October 4, 2014 Arena: Ericsson Globe Arena City: Stockholm, Sweden The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns with another double-header on Saturday with UFC Fight Night 53 in Sweden and UFC Fight Night 54 in Nova Scotia. UFC Fight Night 53 will be live from Stockholm, Sweden with a four-fight main card and a seven-fight preliminary card. All 11 bouts will be streaming live on the UFC’s online digital network, UFC Fight Pass. Preliminary action will begin at 12:10pm ET and the main card is set to kick off at 3pm ET. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My bets to AVOID for UFC Fight Night 53 in Sweden are: Welterweight bout: Alexander Yakovlev (+180) vs Niko Musoke (-220) Gabe’s Thoughts: Both of these 170-pounders are coming off unanimous decision defeats and are eager to get back in the win column. Yakovlev was outgrappled for three rounds of action by Damien Maia a few months ago on enemy territory in Brazil a few months back, and Musoke was outpointed by The Ultimate Fighter season 18 winner Kelvin Gastelum for two out of three rounds three months ago. I agree that Musoke should be the betting favorite heading into this welterweight scrap, though I do not agree with his current betting line of -220. I think this flight will be closer than those odds indicate, and would not be surprised at all of the Russian pulled away with the win. At +180, I don’t think there is enough value in Yakovlev to warrant a play on him, and -220 is too much to risk on Musoke against such a tough fighter like Yakovlev. I favor Musoke to get his hand raised in this fight via a closely contested decision, and I think he will earn it by using his top control on the mat to seal rounds in his favor on the judges’ scorecards. I think Yakovlev is an underrated welterweight and could be worth a play if he ends up reaching +250. Until then, I think this fight is best to just sit back and enjoy, as a bet either way is currently not worth the risk. Gabe’s Call: Musoke by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Featherweight bout: Ernest Chavez (+205) vs Zubaira Tukhugov (-245) Gabe’s Thoughts: Chavez is set to make his featherweight debut, coming off the first loss of his professional mixed martial arts career, which came against still-undefeated Brazilian lightweight prospect Elias Silverio a few months ago. Now in a new division, he will be looking to get back on track, as he takes on Zubaira Tukhugov. The Chechnyan currently enjoys a seven-fight winning streak and is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Douglas Silva de Andrade in what was his promotional debut over seven months ago. He will be looking to extend that streak from seven wins to eight, as he hopes to make a run in the UFC’s featherweight division. Tukhugov is nearly a two and a half to one favorite over Chavez at -245 heading into this scrap, and while I agree that he should be the favorite, I think that betting line is a little off. I believe Chavez stands a chance here, and I do see some value in him at his current underdog price of +205, I just feel it isn’t enough to justify a play, especially considering how tough Tukhugov is. This is another fight on the card I feel we are best off staying away from, as a bet either way would be a gamble in which the risk outweighs the reward. Gabe’s Call: Tukhugov by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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