UFC Fight Night 52 Play: Miesha “Cupcake” Tate (-290) vs Rin Nakai (+260)

Miesha TateUFC Fight Night 52 Date: September 20, 2014 Arena: Saitama Super Arena City: Saitama, Japan Women’s Bantamweight bout: Miesha “Cupcake” Tate (-290) vs Rin Nakai (+260) Fight Breakdown: The main card for UFC Fight Night 52 in Japan will be featuring a women’s bantamweight contest between former Women’s Strikeforce bantamweight champion Miesha “Cupcake” Tate and undefeated Japanese prospect Rin Nakai. Tate is currently a -290 ($290 to win $100) betting favorite heading into this contest, with the return on the underdog Nakai being +260 ($100 to win $260) at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. Miesha “Cupcake” Tate (14-5 MMA, 1-2 UFC) got her first taste of Octagon victory at UFC on FOX 11 five months ago, defeating Liz Carmouche via somewhat controversial unanimous decision. She spent much of the fight on her back but won rounds in the judges’ eyes for doing more from bottom position than Carmouche was doing from on top. Now with her first UFC win under her belt, she will be looking to make it two in a row against the undefeated Japanese 27-year old in Rin Nakai. “Cupcake” is a talented wrestler who works solid takedowns, as her former nickname “Takedown” would suggest. She owns two ‘Female Fighter of the Year’ awards and two ‘Submission of the Year’ awards. Tate is a talented submission artist who has won seven of her 14 professional bouts via tapout. Her conditioning has not been great, but she had made a point to work on it. Her striking is rudimentary, though she has been showing constant improvement in that department, as well. Rin Nakai (16-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is set to make her promotional debut in her home country of Japan and she is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Invicta FC veteran Sarah D’Alelio, which took place under the Pancrase banner four months ago. She is now undefeated at 16-0 and will be looking to extend that streak to 17 against the veteran Tate, while simultaneously picking up her first UFC victory. Nakai is a powerful fighter who is a bit unorthodox on the feet. She has good footwork and head-movement, and does a good job of working heavy leg kicks. Her striking defense is not great, but she has a good chin and can take a punch. The 27-year old has good grappling skills and is heavy from top position. She works decent ground and pound but prefers to go for the submission finish. Nakai does have a solid submission game, owning six of 16 career victories by way of tapout. Though she is very muscular, Nakai’s cardio is very good, so I expect her to be ready to go a full 15 minutes of action in her Octagon debut, should the fight go the distance. Gabe’s Thoughts: I favor Tate to pick up the win here and I favor her to do so by decision. However, I could see it being a close fight, and even if she doesn’t deserve it, I could see the judges giving the victory to the undefeated Japanese fighter Nakai. A close fight could very well result in a hometown decision victory for Nakai, so while I favor Tate to pick up the win, I see more value in the Over 2.5 rounds at -200 than I do in Tate at -290, as I think Tate should be -300 and the Over should be at least -260. Of course, I won’t be shocked if Tate finishes the fight, but I think she wins by decision much more often than not, so I am going to take the safest route here by making a small play on the Over. Gabe’s Call: “Cupcake” by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-200) 2u to win 1u

Written by Gabe Killian

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