Gabe Killian’s Live Dogs for WSOF 13

Moraes BollingerWSOF 13 Date: September 13, 2014 Arena: Sands Bethlehem Event Center City: Bethlehem, PA WSOF 13 will be live this Saturday night from Bethlehem, Pennsylvania with an 11-fight card, including a four-fight main card that will be live on the NBC Sports Network at 9pm ET. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My live dogs for WSOF 13 are: Lightweight bout: Keon Caldwell (+240) vs Ozzy Dugulubgov (-320) Gabe’s Thoughts: Caldwell has not seen action since a first round guillotine choke submission loss to Nick Newell at WSOF 4 over a year ago, and has been his only defeat as a 155-pound fighter. As a welterweight, he also had one defeat, which came against current UFC welterweight Dhiego Lima, also by first round submission. His opponent Gugulubgov is a Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu fighter who is also coming off a loss, having dropped a split decision to Jonathan Nunez at WSOF 9 over five months ago. I think the Russian is the rightful favorite in this match-up, but I don’t think he should be higher than -200. At these current betting odds, I feel the value is with Caldwell and think he has a decent chance of pulling out the W. At +240, I think it’s worth at least half a unit. Gabe’s Call: Caldwell by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Keon Caldwell (+240) .5u to win 1.2u Lightweight bout: Frankie Perez (-270) vs Tom Marcellino (+190) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a fight between two talented prospects in the WSOF’s 155-pound division, with Perez coming off split decision loss on the regional circuit four months ago, snapping a previously undefeated eight-fight winning streak, and his opponent Marcellino coming off five-round unanimous decision victory two months ago, also on the regional circuit. I think this is going to be a fun fight, and while I think Perez deserves to be a favorite in this bout, I think the fight will actually be closer than the odds currently indicate. I think Marcellino has a very good chance of picking up a win here, so at +190, I do like him for a little value play here. I think this is a “sit back and enjoy” kind of fight, but do feel the odds should be a lot closer, so for sake of value, throwing a little bit on the underdog. Gabe’s Call: Marcellino by Split Decision (29-28, 28-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Tom Marcellino (+195) 1u to win 1.9u

Written by Gabe Killian

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