MMA Odds and Ends for Tuesday: Quick Thoughts on UFC Fight Night 50 Preliminary Lines

aliaquinta MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas yesterday opened the prelim lines up for UFC Fight Night 50 at Several Bookmakers, and for today’s MMA Odds and Ends I’ll give my quick thoughts on them. Al Iaquinta vs. Rodrigo Damm Iaquinta opened as a -385 favorite (bet $385 to win $100) while Damm opened as a +265 underdog (bet $100 to win $265). The public has bet up Iaquinta to -530, with the comeback on Damm currently +350. I do lean towards Iaquinta in this fight based on the styles but man, this line is absolutely crazy. Did bettors not learn their lesson from the Mitch Clarke fight? Iaquinta could be absolutely dominating his opponent and then get caught in a choke at any time. Like I said, Iaquinta should be favored here because he is the better all-around fighter, but Damm has knockout power and good submission skills and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he found a way to stop Iaquinta. Chris Camozzi vs. Rafael Natal Natal opened at -230, Camozzi +170, and the public has bet down Natal to -175 and Camozzi to +135. I agree with the line movement in this one as it’s closer to a Pick ’em fight in my eyes than a fight where Natal should be so highly favored. Natal has decent wrestling and Camozzi has shown weak takedown defence so I do think he should be a slight favorite, but his chin is poor and Camozzi could definitely catch him with a flying knee or something. I’m passing on this fight, but it’s probably another dog-or-pass situation. Chris Beal vs. Tateki Matsuda Beal opened at -290, Matsuda +210. Beal has ballooned to -350 while Matsuda is now +250. Finally a fight where I understand the line movement. Maybe Matsuda is better than all of us are giving him credit for, but this is a tough situation for him to come into as he’s taking this fight on very short notice and against a stud striker in Beal, who looked amazing in his UFC debut. Beal isn’t a lock by any means, but if Matsuda wins this fight I’d be very surprised, so I definitely understand why people are betting on “The Real Deal” here after that flying knee KO win he had at UFC 172. Chas Skelly vs. Sean Soriano Skelly opened at -180, Soriano +140. Skelly is now a -245 favorite while Soriano is a +175 dog. I like Skelly a lot as a fighter but this is another line that I don’t feel is justified. I know he just beat Tom Niinimaki via submission and now he’s facing one of Niinimaki’s training partners in Soriano, who lost his UFC debut by submission, but I just feel like we didn’t see the real Soriano in his fight against Tatsuya Kawajiri and at this point, the value in this contest is most definitely on the dog.

Written by Adam Martin.

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